ZERKALO: RESUMING HOSTILITIES MEANS SUICIDE

news.am
Nov 25 2009
Armenia

Despite the international community’s repeated warnings and statements
on the unacceptability of resuming the military conflict, the things
have gone as far as that the possibilities of neutralizing the external
threats that may arise in case Azerbaijan resumes hostilities are being
discussed. Specifically, the Baku-based Zerkalo (Mirror) newspaper
writes: "One can be entirely sure that Russia, the USA and European
Union, for different reasons, will unanimously pronounce against
Azerbaijan’s attempt to restore its territorial integrity by force."

The newspaper points that the Western states, particularly the United
States, have no military presence in the region, which means they
have no way of influencing the developments using force. The West
is well aware of the fact that any attempts to settle the conflicts
in the South Caucasus by force will enable Russia to strengthen its
politico-military presence in the region.

"No one can guarantee Russia’s neutrality in case of hostilities
between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Nikolay Bordyuzha has repeatedly stated
that in case of war the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)
will fulfill its commitments under a treaty of alliance with Armenia,"
the newspaper writes.

Thus, without external threats averted, "even the liberation of some
occupied territories will turn into a Pyrrhic victory for Azerbaijan."

Moreover, in this case Azerbaijan cannot rely on the politico-military
support of Turkey, its only ally in the region. "First, the relations
between the two allies have, to put it mildly, been showing signs
of a rift recently. Secondly, it should be admitted that Turkey’s
potential is not so great for it to oppose the combined efforts of
the USA, Russia and European Union…"

In conclusion, the author points out the need for a clear answer to
the question concerning Azerbaijan’s ability to avert the subsequent
"international threats," otherwise "resuming hostilities means
a suicide."