AZERBAIJAN MAY SPURN WEST

International News
8
Nov 27 2009
Pakistan

BAKU: On a windswept hilltop looking down at the Azerbaijani capital
Baku, Turkish flags flutter over a monument that testifies to decades
of close ties between the two nations.

Surrounding an obelisk bearing the Turkish crescent and star, stone
blocks carry the names of dozens of Turkish soldiers who died while
fighting for Azerbaijan’s independence before it was absorbed into
the Soviet Union in 1922.

For Turks and Azerbaijanis, who share close ethnic and linguistic
roots, the monument is a symbol of what officials in both countries
frequently describe as "brotherly" relations.

So it came as a shock when Azerbaijan — angry over Ankara’s efforts
at reconciliation with Azerbaijan’s arch-rival Armenia — removed
the Turkish flags flying over the monument in October.

After some soothing words from Ankara, the flags soon returned. But
anger at Turkey is running deep in Azerbaijan, and tensions are
threatening not only a partnership that has been crucial for both
countries, but also Western interests in an area of great strategic
importance.

Diplomats and analysts say resentment in Azerbaijan is aimed not
only at Nato member Turkey for pursuing ties with Armenia, but also
at the United States and Europe for pushing Ankara towards a deal.

That could see Azerbaijan turn away from nearly two decades of looking
to the West, threatening vital energy supplies to Europe and sowing
further instability in the volatile South Caucasus region between
Russia and Iran.

"It’s not only Azerbaijan whose interests are put at risk by this
abruptive, not carefully prepared… rapprochement between Turkey
and Armenia," Azerbaijani Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov told
AFP in an interview.

The interests of Europe and the United States also stand to suffer,
he said, while warning that "reactions from Azerbaijan will be even
more harsh" if Turkey ratifies a deal to establish diplomatic ties
and open its border with Armenia. At the centre of the dispute is
the mountainous southwestern Azerbaijani region of Nagorny Karabakh,
where ethnic Armenian separatists, backed by Yerevan, seized control
from Baku during a war in the early 1990s that left 30,000 dead.

Negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region have been
stalled for years and tensions remain high, with frequent fighting
and deadly shootings along a fragile ceasefire line.

Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993 in solidarity with
Azerbaijan over the Karabakh conflict, and Baku insists the border
should not re-open until the region’s status is settled.

The United States and Europe had pushed for Ankara to reach a deal
with Armenia earlier, making it appear that Baku’s interests have
been set aside, said Vladimir Socor, a regional expert with the
Washington-based Jamestown Foundation.

"Azerbaijan is justifiably irritated with Western policy on this
issue," he said. "Azerbaijan correctly feels that its own security
concerns and the Karabakh issue are simply not being taken into
account to a sufficient degree, if at all, by the United States and
by the major European powers."

Socor said that by ignoring Azerbaijan’s interests, Western powers
are jeopardising years of effort to gain influence in the strategic
Caucasus region and to tap the vast energy reserves of the Caspian Sea.

Since gaining its independence with the Soviet collapse in 1991,
Azerbaijan has been at the heart of Western efforts to transport oil
and gas from the Caspian to Europe, decreasing Western reliance on
Russian supplies.

Baku is the starting point for two major pipelines carrying oil and
gas from the Caspian, through Georgia and Turkey, to hungry European
consumers.

Efforts are underway to expand the network into Central Asia,
and Azerbaijan is also considered a key potential supplier for
the European Union’s flagship Nabucco gas pipeline. But in the
wake of the Armenia-Turkey deal, Azerbaijan has threatened to seek
alternative export routes and in recent months has signed new supply
deals with both Russia and Iran. Azimov, the deputy foreign minister,
said the West needs to realise that pushing for a deal between Turkey
and Armenia without taking Baku’s interests into account will have
consequences.

"The question that needs to be asked is: Are we important? And if
we are, then issues have to be solved in a way providing for all
interests," he said.