MOSCOW, ANKARA HAVE COMMON INTERESTS IN KARABAKH?
news.am
Nov 27 2009
Armenia
Hostilities in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone will not be resumed
– Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev is too wise and farsighted a
politician to unleash a new war in the region, Anatoly Tsiganok,
Head of the Center for Military Prognosis, Institute for Political
and Military Analysis (IPMA), told NEWS.am.
He stressed that the Collective Security Treaty organization (CSTO),
NATO, other international organizations, as well as Russia, will
do their best to prevent hostilities in the region. "No one needs a
war in the south Caucasus – neither the USA nor Russia nor Europe,"
Tsiganok said. He pointed out that the unleashing of hostilities in
the Nagorno-Karabakh region depends to a great extent on Russia’s
attitude. The expert stressed that neither Russia nor the CSTO will
interfere is hostilities should be resumed. As regards Washington’s
position, Tsiganok said the Armenian lobby is much stronger there
than its Azerbaijani counterpart. "It is no mere chance that the U.S.
Congress includes financial aid to Nagorno-Karabakh in the U.S. draft
budget every year. It is most serious and means support for
Stepanakert’s actions," the expert said. As regard the negotiation
process, Tsiganok stressed that it will never be a success without
Nagorno-Karabakh.
Speaking of the Azerbaijani President’s recent bellicose statements,
Tsiganok said that they are intended for Ankara, being aimed
at preventing the reopening of the Armenian-Turkish border. "The
Ankara-Baku relations strained by Baku’s wish to raise the oil price
and Turkey’s refusal to pay more have even worsened because of the
possible reopening of the Armenian-Turkish border. Azerbaijan views
this prospect as running counter to its interests," Tsiganok said. He
stressed that He stressed Turkey is the main player in the post-Soviet
area, its potential being even great than that of Russia. "On the
other hand, it is a good thing that Russia and Turkey have common
interests in the post-Soviet area, including their interests in
the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process and Ankara-Yerevan relations,"
the expert said.