Turks’ eastern turn

Financial Times, UK
Nov 25 2009

There will be plenty to discuss at Thursday’s meeting in Istanbul of
European Union foreign ministers with their Turkish counterpart: not
just Turkey’s stalled accession talks but the ostensible turn
eastwards of Ankara’s foreign policy.

There are those who perceive a contradiction in EU candidate and Nato
member Turkey’s facing east and west at the same time. The
neo-Islamist government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan is not among them –
and it may have a point.

To begin with, Turkey has a clear interest in fostering stability in
its near east and south-east. So, for that matter, does the EU.

To be clear, the expansion of Turkish influence, including with Syria
and Iran, is not just about stability. Turkey is reasserting itself as
a regional power, and trying to demonstrate it has alternatives to the
EU, where France, Germany and Austria seem intent on slamming the door
in its face.

If this demonstration highlights the strategic value of having Turkey
inside the union, the contrasting feebleness of the EU’s efforts in
the region – Europe’s turbulent backyard – and the creative use of
`soft power’ in action, then it could be salutary and worthwhile.

Turkey has not just mended fences with Syria, it has flattened them:
abolishing visa restrictions. In 1996 Ankara was suspected of planting
bombs in Damascus, for harbouring Kurdish separatists. It has also
embraced post-war Iraq, which it had threatened to invade, also over
the perceived threat from the Kurds. It has started to address the
rift with Armenia, over the mass-murders of Armenians in the dying
years of the Ottoman empire, and started devising the first real
policy of reconciliation with its own Kurdish minority.

It has also fallen out with Israel over Gaza, and cosied up to Iran,
where Mr Erdogan said the west is treating the Islamic Republic’s
nuclear programme `unfairly’.

Yet, the turn east – seen by some as neo-Ottoman – is driven by
interests more than ideology. Trade with the Middle East is fast
expanding to take up the slack of the EU downturn, while Turkey wants
to become a hub for energy from the Caspian and Egypt.

Overall, the EU should be positive about this. Turkey is the most
successful country in the region, with a big foot in Europe. The
ability of its secular republic to accommodate (so far) a governing
party with Islamist roots, and simultaneously carry out a
constitutional revolution, mesmerises the most dynamic sectors of Arab
society. That is surely an asset for Europe, and for the broader
Middle East.