EURASIAN STRATEGY PROJECT DIRECTOR: ARMENIAN GOVERNMENT IS TAKING A POLITICAL RISK

Today
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Dec 1 2009
Azerbaijan

Eurasian Strategy Project and Georgetown University professor Cory
Welt spoke to Day.Az about the upcoming meeting of U.S. President
Barak Obama and Turkish PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

"President Obama and Prime Minister Erdogan will have a number of
pressing issues to discuss next month. Insofar as the Turkey-Armenia
normalization process is one of these issues, we can expect that their
conversation will also touch upon the Karabakh conflict resolution
process. For now, the Turkish parliament seems to be holding out on
ratification with the aim of encouraging at least a minor breakthrough
on Karabakh," – Welt said.

"If this attitude persists through the December visit, then the
two leaders will undoubtedly discuss ways to encourage such a
breakthrough. The contours of this breakthrough should be familiar
by now: some kind of agreement that points the way to the withdrawal
of Armenian forces from most of the occupied territories around
Nagorno-Karabakh as well as the formulation of a neutral "interim"
status for Nagorno-Karabakh that points neither to secession nor
re-integration into Azerbaijan," – Welt added.

"There are at least two immediate obstacles to achieving such a
breakthrough, however, or in relying on the United States to persuade
Armenia to move forward on such a deal. First, the Armenian government
is already taking a political risk on normalization with Turkey;
even if President Sargsyan was prepared to move forward on Karabagh
(which is by no means certain), he would undoubtedly prefer to take
one risky move at a time."

"Second, the Azerbaijani government is not making it as easy for the
United States to support its position as it could. While President
Aliyev’s public support for a "status neutral" solution to the Karabagh
conflict is highly welcome, official rhetoric regarding Azerbaijan’s
willingness to use force as a last resort is negatively received in the
U.S. – all the moreso after we witnessed the recent bloodshed in the
South Caucasus. At the same time, Azerbaijani internal developments,
for better or for worse, inescapably influence American views toward
Azerbaijan and its state interests" – the expert noted.