RUSSIAN ANALYST CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC ON KARABAKH

news.az
Dec 1 2009
Azerbaijan

Alexey Vlasov News.Az interviews Alexey Vlasov, director of Moscow
State University’s analytical centre on post-Soviet states.

During his visit to Washington next week, Turkish Prime Minister Recep
Tayyip Erdogan is expected to discuss US-Turkish and Armenian-Turkish
relations and, as a result, the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. Do
you expect a breakthrough on any of these issues?

According to leaks in the Turkish media, Erdogan’s visit might be
productive for Armenian-Turkish and Armenian-Azerbaijani relations.

Let’s wait for the meeting between the foreign ministers of Armenia
and Azerbaijan. If any specific agreements are reached, Erdogan has a
good chance of going down in history as "a successful negotiator". I
am cautiously optimistic both about the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
settlement and the Armenian-Turkish protocols.

Do you think Turkey is not entirely independent on the issue of
opening the border with Armenia and is being pushed by the United
States and EU?

This is partially true. The pressure from the United States is
very serious, but as I have already said in a previous interview,
the Americans are too direct. Without other arbiters and mediators
they will find it difficult to bring together the interests of all
regional players. They will have to negotiate in an expanded format. So
Washington’s pressure is also limited. Moreover, Ankara’s interests
do not fully coincide with those of the West.

Will the Armenian-Turkish protocols be ratified?

There are two possibilities. The first one is that the process of
ratification of the protocols will proceed in line with progress on
Nagorno-Karabakh. In this case, ratification will be considered one of
the first achievements in negotiations between Baku and Yerevan. The
second possibility is that the topics will be scheduled. The likeliest
date in this case is spring 2010. But I would like to note that more
accelerated scenarios are possible.

How would you assess Turkey’s diplomacy in the South Caucasus in the
past year?

A great game is under way and Turkey is successfully overcoming
possible risks. If everything goes well, Turkey’s diplomacy will work
in the region’s favour. But it should be taken into account that any
accident may hamper the peacekeeping efforts. Therefore, I think it
is too early to draw conclusions. Let’s wait until January 2010.