DAVUTOGLU ARRIVES IN ATHENS TO BARGAIN FOR AZERBAIJAN

/PanARMENIAN.Net/
01.12.2009 GMT+04:00

Based on the results of Nalbandian-Mammadyarov meeting, Turkey will
build its policy in the Armenian-Turkish relations.

Regular summit of the OSCE Ministerial Council can be considered a
milestone in several respects. First, for the first time the OSCE
chairmanship passes to Kazakhstan, a Central Asian country, which in
view of its significance can be considered a European country too,
as in current geopolitical realities the geographical concepts are
replaced by energy, transport and strategic ones. So, the choice of
Kazakhstan as the OSCE chairman is justified. Moreover, the huge
hydrocarbon reserves of the country make it almost priceless for
Europe, which with all its might is eager to get rid of the Russian
monopoly on gas.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Back in 1975, when the OSCE (then CSCE) was
established, it was declared an organization whose interests extended
from Vancouver to Vladivostok. Much time has passed since then and
the geopolitical configuration of the world has changed. Initially the
organization was unipolar; now it is moving toward multipolarity, but
its priorities remain the same: energy security, border management,
and, of course, attempts to prevent and settle conflicts. It must
be admitted that OSCE is able to achieve the latter with difficulty,
but the fact that "hot spots" are rather few on the Eurasian continent
can be recorded as an asset of the OSCE, albeit with some exaggeration.

But be that as it may, the OSCE Minsk Group has been able to preserve
the fragile peace in the area of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict for
15 years already.

The Summit itself is interesting to Armenia, first of all, for the
resolution to be made by the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs on the basis of
Madrid Principles, the details of which are known to few people only,
but are commented by almost everyone. There is one more delicate point:
Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu is presently in Athens. It
is rather strange, if we take into consideration the extremely tense
relations between Greece and Turkey over the Cyprus issue. Most
likely, Davutoglu has arrived in Athens to bargain for Azerbaijan,
i.e. once again to make it clear to Baku that the "brotherly people"
will never leave Azerbaijan "in trouble".

And considering the fact that this summit is the first since
the signing of the Armenian-Turkish Protocols, the reason for
Davutoglu’s visit becomes obvious. Turkey is there not because
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and normalization of Armenian-Turkish
relations are interrelated, they are officially separated, but because
based on the outcome of this meeting, Turkey is going to build its
policy in the Armenian-Turkish relations.

Armenian-Turkish negotiations are completed, and it’s up to the
parliaments of both countries to ratify the Protocols. However, it
would mean that the two processes – the Armenian-Turkish relations
and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict – which were declared independent
with an agreement between all the parties, including the Minsk group
co-chairs, or even without an agreement, accept this fact in the
frames of two parallel negotiations.

The Turkish Foreign Minister has apparently come to warn the OSCE
Minsk Group, and consequently the Russian Foreign Ministry and the
U.S. Department of State, that on December 7 the Turkish parliament
will make an "appropriate decision" and, as already mentioned,
on the spot in Athens will try to bargain for better conditions
for Azerbaijan.

In view of Turkey’s bend towards the East and North, it is likely that
Turkey will try to extort at least some treats for Azerbaijan from the
West, so as not to disrupt the Erdogan-Obama meeting, scheduled for
December 7. The collapse of US-Turkish negotiations promises serious
complications to Turkey. It is not just the threat of recognition of
the Armenian Genocide by the United States, but also a warning against
possible support of Turkey to Azerbaijan in case, after collapse of
talks on Karabakh, the latter tries to launch a war against NKR. A
side effect will be the recognition of NKR. Hardly would Turkey
recommend Azerbaijan to start a war, having received a warning from
the U.S. on the recognition of NKR. In this case, even the alliance
Russia-Azerbaijan would be meaningless, because Russia – our "true"
ally – would never be able to oppose such a step by the U.S. Ankara,
Yerevan and Moscow realize it perfectly well.