A SMARTER CAUCASUS POLICY
By Yevgeny Bazhanov
Moscow Times
Dec 3 2009
Russia
Events in the South Caucasus are like a throwback to the 19th century:
local clans are violently killing each other and the world’s leading
powers are trying to elbow their way into the region to colonize the
"natives." This is a particularly blatant anachronism considering
the 21st- century global movement in the opposite direction toward
cooperation and integration. The European Union is a good example. Its
members have adopted a constitution, instituted a single government
and established transparent borders.
Why don’t we see these positive trends in the South Caucasus as well?
The reason is obvious.The Soviet Union left behind chaos and disorder
after it collapsed. As a result, former Soviet republics have seen a
rebirth of old ethnic tensions that were buried deep under the carpet
during totalitarian Soviet rule, including Armenians opposing Azeris
and the Abkhaz and Ossetians opposing Georgians.
As successor to the Soviet Union, the Kremlin tried to exert control
over the new states as if they were still vassals and tried to keep
out foreign influences. Moreover, instead of fulfilling the function
of peacemaker among the various Caucasus nationalities, Russia
tended to favor one nationality over another. That only deepened
regional conflicts and prompted participants to search for support
and protection in other regions.
Meanwhile, the United States, inebriated with its Cold War victory
and unequaled power, rushed to fill the political and economic vacuum
that had developed in the South Caucasus. Washington initially did
not take Russia’s interests into consideration, assuming that Moscow
would soon swear its allegiance to the United States. When it became
evident that Moscow had no intention of towing Washington’s line
and was committed to retaining its natural leadership position in
the global arena, the United States tried to push Russia out of the
former superpower’s zone of influence.
Complicating matters further, Turkey and Iran have also become involved
in the Caucasus’ internal squabbles, pursuing their own religious,
ethnic and economic objectives.
All of these factors have culminated in a huge tangle of geopolitical
power struggles in the South Caucasus. The time has come to untangle
this web. Since Moscow and Washington are trying to "reset" relations,
the South Caucasus should be given a priority spot on the agenda.
The first step should be for Russia, the United States, the European
Union, Turkey and Iran to agree to stop trying to push each other out
of the region and to stop carving it up into pieces. Instead, they
should get serious about resolving the problems in Nagorno-Karabakh
and reaching a final territorial agreement between Georgia and the
independent states of Abkhazia and North Ossetia. The next step should
be to initiate a dialog on energy and to develop economic cooperation
with one another concerning the South Caucasus.
With regard to Russia’s policy on the South Caucasus and former Soviet
republics, the Kremlin should understand that young states going
through their difficult "teenager" stage of finding their self-identity
are generally preoccupied with strengthening their sovereignty. A
patronizing attitude from Moscow is perceived negatively and pushes
former allies away from Russia and toward other centers of power.
In addition, the Kremlin needs to come to terms with the fact that
former Soviet republics will seek to diversify their foreign contacts
to include other power centers — chiefly, Europe, the United States
and China. It is natural for newly independent states experiencing
social and economic difficulties to seek financial support from these
centers. In fact, Russia itself is looking for partnerships there
as well.
Russia should not use pressure tactics to gain influence in the former
Soviet republics. Instead, it needs to put its old stereotypes behind
it and concentrate on expanding trade with its partners in the region.
Interconnecting trade and investment ties between Russia and the
other former Soviet republics is the best way to build a strong,
long-term alliance and a new global power center.
Yevgeny Bazhanov is the vice chancellor of research and international
relations at the Foreign Ministry’s Diplomatic Academy in Moscow.