FOUR QUESTIONS AWAITING ERDOGAN IN WASHINGTON
Hurriyet Daily News
Dec 3 2009
Turkey
On the other side of the Atlantic, many questions are being asked
about "new tendencies" in Turkish foreign politics. Next Monday,
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will visit Washington.
On the other side of the Atlantic, many questions are being asked about
"new tendencies" in Turkish foreign politics. Next Monday, Turkish
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will visit Washington. It is not
difficult to see that he would be directly asked these questions; even
one-on-one talks would be shaped around these "unknowns." Two weeks
ago, I attended the Halifax International Security Forum organized
by the German Marshall Fund of the United States, or GMF, and the
Canadian government in the Canadian city of Halifax. So, I had a chance
to discuss U.S. President Barack Obama’s "Erdogan Agenda" with GMF’s
Senior Transatlantic Fellow Ian O. Lesser who follows Turkey closely.
In short, Lesser said the following on the four "unknowns":
Question 1: What will you do about Iran?
What Turkey does is key in U.S. foreign policy on the Iranian
nuclear policy. We have not seen any big problems so far … Even
Turkish-American dialog on Iran gave quite positive results. There
is no policy issue between Turkey and the United States. But will
this last long? Could this be changed? We’ll wait and see … The
situation in Iran changes quickly … The United Nations Security
Council may seek resolutions to apply sanctions on Iran. And on
the subject, there is a potential disagreement between Turkey and
the United States over Iran policies. In the next one or two years,
the Iranian issue will be one of the most critical tests for Turkey
and the United States in foreign policy to see whether they have a
common ground for understanding.
If the issue is sent to the U.N. Security Council, council member
Turkey will have to make some tough choices. For instance, will
Turkey say "yes" or "no" to heavy sanctions on Iran? Or will it
be "abstained"? What will happen if China and Russia say "yes" to
sanctions? Then, it will be very difficult for Turkey to be isolated
in the Security Council’s collective opinion.
There will be some pressures on Turkey stemming from the Middle
East …
Turkey has good relations with Egypt and the Gulf countries in many
aspects but these countries are quite adamant on the Iranian nuclear
program.
Question 2: What about protocols signed with Armenia?
The Obama administration will have significant interest in
ratification and implementation of the protocols signed between
Turkey and Armenia. The protocols were welcomed in the United States
as they were consistent with U.S. interests. We will bring the issue
(ratification of the protocols) to the Armenian agenda. We want to see
what is going to happen. He will probably say to Erdogan "Look, you did
a good job with the protocols but now you should put them into action."
Question 3: How far will you impede your relations with Israel?
My personal opinion is that deterioration in Turkish-Israeli relations
was the product of predictable bigger impulses … Change in Turkish
public opinion, change in strategic relations with Syria, all these …
Conditions are not the same as in the 1990s. So, I don’t think that
the change in Turkey’s relations with Israel was a big surprise for
the United States. American leadership will rather want to know how
long the decline will last. I think Mr. Obama, in order to have a
better understanding of what will happen next, is really curious
about what Prime Minister Erdogan will say on the subject.
Question 4: What do you say about a deployment of a missile defense
system on your land?
After the idea of deploying the system in the Czech Republic
and Poland, a new round of discussions about missile defense
system agreements may take place. Mainly a sea-based system in the
Mediterranean is being considered. But in the future, some elements of
the system may be deployed on the shore. This is a possibility. So,
the Obama administration may be interested in learning the Turkish
opinion on the issue.
* Mr. Kadri Gursel is a columnist for the daily Milliyet in which
this piece appeared Thursday. It was translated into English by the
Daily News staff.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
