DOUBLE-BOTTOM POLITICS

WPS Agency
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
December 2, 2009 Wednesday
Russia

THE AVAILABILITY OF TWO POWER CENTERS, THE PRESIDENTIAL TEAM AND THE
PREMIER’S TEAM, AFFECTS ALL ASPECTS OF RUSSIA’S INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL
POLITICS; President Medvedev’s increasing influence both in the country
and in the world gives rise to latent tensions between himself and
Premier Vladimir Putin. This affects all aspects of Russia’s internal
and external politics.

The current existence of two power centers is affecting practically all
aspects of Russia’s internal and external policies. They say that the
more experienced leader Dmitry Medvedev becomes, the more international
recognition he enjoys, the more heated tensions emerge between himself
and Premier Vladimir Putin. While Premier Putin repeatedly emphasizes
that he does not interfere in the Presidential responsibilities,
it is him who actually forms Russia’s foreign policy.

For example, last July Russian President Medvedev and US President
Obama agreed to conclude a new treaty on strategic offensive arms
reductions. However, December is coming, and it is likely that the
US-Russian negotiations have come to a blind alley. It is only natural
that Putin’s team selected a group of Russian experts involved in
elaborating the draft treaty. Specifically, this expert group insists
that the negotiations must involve not only the US nuclear potential,
but also the nuclear potentials of France and Great Britain. All these
three countries are NATO member states, and their missiles may be
targeted at a single adversary. Meanwhile it is clear that President
Medvedev is seeking to settle the issue of strategic nuclear weapons
as soon as possible.

Another important issue is China. President Medvedev is duly
authorized, and would like to be personally responsible for Russia’s
policy in that country. However, First Vice-Premier and Premier Putin’s
right hand aide Igor Sechin has always been and remains a key person
working with Chinese counterparts.

Another example refers to an agreement on settling relations signed
between adversary countries, Armenia and Turkey. The Russian Foreign
Ministry alone being under a total control of Premier Putin was
in charge of that problem. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov openly
insisted that President of Armenia Sarkisyan accept the agreement on
the terms offered by Turkey. And the US Department of State supported
him in those efforts. They say that President Medvedev was extremely
dissatisfied with the fact that he had failed to actively participate
in that process.

Not so long ago it became clear why the Premier’s team had been so
active. Actually Vladimir Putin pressed Armenia into signing a peace
agreement with Turkey. In turn, Turkey endorsed the construction of
the ‘South Stream’ pipeline via its territorial waters in the Black
Sea. The Premier believes that is his personal achievement.

According to specialists, tensions between Putin and Medvedev will
only increase, but not to finalize in an open conflict that could lead
to a pre-term presidential elections. But it is highly unprofitable
for President Medvedev’s team.