EPILOGUE TO ATHENS MEETING BETWEEN AZERBAIJANI, ARMENIAN FOREIGN MINISTERS
By Nurani

Today
Dec 4 2009
Azerbaijan

The region is summarizing the outcome of the Athens talks following the
latest round of Karabakh negotiations. The OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs
are trying to demonstrate a habitual optimism, which frankly speaking
one finds hard to believe on the backdrop of Yerevan’s belligerent
statements and intransigence during talks. What the ministers talked
about in Athens is unknown. But one thing is clear. A document on
the resolution of the Karabakh conflict was not discussed in Greece.

Here is a good response to the optimistic assumption that a
breakthrough in negotiations will allegedly take place next weekend.

Negotiations have stalled again thanks to Armenia. There is no need
to remind readers that the failure of the Karabakh negotiations
inhibits the resolution of the conflict in the South Caucasus as well
as Armenian-Turkish reconciliation.

Azerbaijani and Armenian foreign ministers Ahmet Davutoglu and Edward
Nalbandian also met in Athens. Experts have no doubt whatsoever
that progress should not be expected in terms of Turkey-Armenia
reconciliation without real progress in resolving the Karabakh
conflict.

Why is Armenia hurting the negotiations yet again? Is the country
employing "cunning tactics" to win the current situation and force
abrupt shifts unbeknownst to the rest of the players?

Today, even non-specialists know about the true alignment of forces in
the talks. Armenia still occupies 20 percent of Azerbaijani territory.

It is obvious to many that it is not Armenia that is setting the
terms in the negotiations. The maximum that can be achieved through
such escapades is "to slow down the talks."

It would be better to leave the option of "cunning tactics" and
"superdiplomacy" for a table talk with a bottle of Armenian cognac. It
is not suitable for a serious analysis for the simple reason that
dragging out the talks does not meet Armenia’s interests.

It is an understatement to say that the balance of regional forces is
not changing in Armenia’s favor. Yerevan is simply unable to set the
terms of the negotiations at a time of a record economic recession
and disastrous emigration – an "oil syndrome" without oil – when at
least one-third (half the families according to their sources) of
the families in Armenia depend on funds from abroad as their primary
source of income. It would be inappropriate to even hope for swift
changes for the better.

To create conditions for a little bit of normal development,
Armenia needs to normalize relations not even with Turkey, but with
Azerbaijan. However, the recent statement that "we will not surrender
Karabakh."

Also, there is no need to say seriously that Armenia has some sort
of secret and support.

Then it becomes clear that the "Saber Dance" arranged by Serge
Sargsyan is designed exclusively for the Armenian audience. Thus,
Armenian leaders are trying to convince everyone that they take a
"super tough position" and they are ready to defend the idea of
"Miatsum" and are resolute to do so to the very end.

It has become increasingly difficult to avoid criticism toward the
ruling team. The Armenian president knows very well that he won
the elections in spring 2008 solely due to falsification and direct
pressure on voters and this undermines his trust.

In short, the Armenian president is under pressure from outside
pushing for a compromise on the backdrop of the country’s "crushing"
economy. The opposition does not retreat either. This makes one
show two positions – one for the outside world and another for the
domestic audience.

However, it seems Yerevan will not wait long. Armenia seems to adhere
to a much simpler principle – "days and nights will hold on." The
country’s officials plan to implement a corruption scheme to the
end and then catch the "last flight" and take "what has been looted"
with them when it is high time. Of course, it all depends where they
will run away to since the diaspora is unlikely to meet with open arms.

Suffice it to recall how police dispersed a rally of Paris Armenians
who blamed Serzh Azatovich of betrayal, and how they stepped on his
portrait at a rally in Los Angeles. So, it seems "cunning tactics"
indeed exist. However, they do not belong to the country as a whole,
but rather a "Karabakh clan," which currently holds power.

Azatovich seems to have failed to take into account one thing while
designing a scheme under the principle "days and nights will hold on."

Until recently, the ongoing occupation of 20 percent of Azerbaijani
lands and the problem of refugees were a "headache" only for
Azerbaijan, while with few exceptions it was just a violation of a
ceasefire and regular trips by the Minsk Group mediators for the rest
of the world. Since the situation has now changed and the stakes have
increased immeasurably, the world deals with the Karabakh conflict
more seriously.

Experts argue that much will depend on the outcome of Turkish Prime
Minister Recep Erdogan’s upcoming visit to the U.S. The head of the
Turkish government has promised in talks with Obama that he is not
going just to speak about the Karabakh issue, but also to demand real
efforts to resolve the situation.

In the meanwhile, Armenia does not even hope the U.S. will push Turkey
to normalize relations with Armenia at any cost. Washington is not
going to risk the Turkish-Azerbaijani partnership not to mention
the fact that Obama and Erdogan have something to talk about –
relations between Turkey and Iran, with which the U.S is obviously
concerned and the "Kurdish factor" in Iraq. Armenia is not a factor
for which Washington will risk ruining relations with Turkey and
Azerbaijan. But it is possible that Armenia will have to make a real
compromise regardless of the domestic political situation.