SEVENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF WAR IN KARABAKH, RUSSIAN ANALYST

news.az
Dec 4 2009
Azerbaijan

Yevgeny Minchenko News.Az interviews Yevgeny Minchenko, director of
the Russia-based International Institute for Political Expertise.

Before meeting the Armenian president in Munich, Ilham Aliyev said that
if the negotiations fail, Azerbaijan will initiate war to liberate
the occupied lands. Do you think a military scenario to settle the
Karabakh conflict is realistic?

I think this scenario is likely, at least 70% likely.

Do you think the superpowers with their interests will allow Baku
to start war in Nagorno-Karabakh? Might the Russian military base in
Armenia get involved in the conflict, possibly under the regulation
of the Collective Security Treaty?

There are several points of risk for foreign states including the
security of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, the threat of ecological
disaster if the nuclear power station in Armenia is damaged and
lesser risks associated with the possible failure of the Mingachevir
hydroelectric power station. Some of the superpowers (in particular,
separate elite groups in the United States) may view a protracted
military conflict as a pressure factor on the wider Middle East,
on the one hand, and on Russia and the Russia-Old European countries
unit ,on the other. As for the involvement of the Russian military
base in Armenia in the conflict, I think this is more likely if
it is attacked. As for the question of the Collective Security
Treaty Organization and its possible involvement in the conflict,
I don’t know.

Analysts say that Ilham Aliyev’s visit to Moscow following the Munich
meeting is related to the Karabakh conflict. What interests does
Moscow pursue in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict?

Naturally, the Kremlin is interested in the settlement of the
conflict. The Kremlin is also interested in preserving good relations
both with Azerbaijan and Armenia. I think there is no quick fix to
achieve both aims.

Tensions over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict are growing. What influence
will Russia have on the Karabakh conflict? Will Moscow be able to push
Yerevan to compromise, because even today most analysts still believe
that the key to the settlement of the conflict lies in the Kremlin?

I think it’s a great delusion to think that the key to the conflict
settlement lies in the Kremlin. Russia was unlucky in being so big
and involved in a great many of its neighbours’ conflicts and even in
remote countries by the very fact of its existence. Russia’s influence
on Armenia and Azerbaijan is quite limited, like its influence on
Iran or North Korea.

The United States and the West have pressured Turkey to normalize
relations with Armenia. If the Armenian-Turkish border is opened, the
US will try to use Ankara to pull Yerevan out of Moscow’s influence.

Russia will lose Yerevan like it lost Georgia. In turn, Azerbaijan is
building its partner relations both with Russia and the United States.

Don’t you think that Moscow would benefit from trying to settle the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to keep Azerbaijan and Yerevan in its sphere
of influence?

Russia plays a more complex game in the region. It is not limited to
Karabakh. See how relations between Russia and Turkey are changing
today. I think an attempt to settle the Karabakh conflict by way of
force would be perceived extremely negatively in Moscow.