TURKISH PRIME MINISTER VISITS U.S. IN VERY IMPORTANT TIME: UK EXPERT

Today
Dec 4 2009
Azerbaijan

Day.Az interview with Dennis Sammut, Executive Director of UK-based
non-governmental organization LINKS.

Day.Az: Do you expect the visit of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan to the United States to influence Turkish-Armenian relations
and settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

Dennis Sammut: This is an important time for the Turkish Prime
Minister to be visiting the US. There are many issues on the agenda
for both sides, including Iraq, Afghanistan, the Iran Nuclear File
and others. However clearly the Caucasus will also be one of the
issues discussed. Turkey has been very active in the region in the
last two years. This reflects a new confidence in Turkish diplomacy.

What do you think of future of the Armenian-Turkish protocols which
have not been ratified yet?

The Turkish-Armenian protocols were signed less than eight weeks ago.

The process of ratification in both countries will take some time.

Timing is now very important since on the one hand the momentum must
not be lost, on the other hand the governments need to wait for the
right conditions to present the agreements for ratification to their
parliaments. Progress in the negotiations on the Karabakh conflict
will certainly make the conditions better.

Do you think Turkish diplomatic "invasion" in settlement of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has been success?

I will not call it an invasion, but rather an awakening. Turkey is a
regional power in the Caucasus and until recently it was reluctant
to engage seriously with the problems of the region. It has now
started doing so. It is too early to say how successful this new
engagement will be, but the normalisation of relations with Armenia,
and the launch of the Caucasus Stability and Co-operation Platform are
positive steps that have been broadly welcomed by the international
community. Turkey is not engaged directly in the negotiations on
the Karabakh conflict settlement but because of its proximity, size,
historical connections – and indeed because of its special relationship
with Azerbaijan – it has a useful contribution to make to creating
the best conditions for peace in the region.

Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov admitted that there are
positive dynamics in the current negotiations on the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict and both sides together with the Minsk Group Co-chairs have
agreed to intensify negotiations. Do you believe in progress any
time soon?

I do not think that stalemate is an option any more. The sides are
reportedly very close to agreeing at least the basic principles on
which to conduct a proper peace process. These next steps must now be
taken. The Presidents and Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan
have worked very hard over the last year on these issues. This should
be appreciated by all. It is now decision time.

Do you share the view that the West (the U.S., EU) don’t play an
active role settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Russia
remaining major mediator. If it is true, what should be done to make
the West to show more interest in settlement of the conflict?

The international community has been quite united in its efforts to
promote a peaceful resolution to the Karabakh conflict. The three
Minsk Group co-Chair – the US, Russia and France – are all equal.

Russia feels closer to the conflict because of history and other
reasons but on this issue it has not acted unilaterally. A solution
will require the support of all the key players in the international
community. The sleeping giant has been the European Union which has
largely limited itself to supporting the Minsk Group Co-Chair work. In
a report that LINKS published on 1 December on the Karabakh conflict
settlement process we say that support for the Minsk process should
not be an excuse for inertia.

The EU may not have been directly involved in the Karabakh negotiations
so far, but the moment there is a breakthrough the EU must engage
very actively. It has the skills and the resources to support the
peace process, it has an interest to do so because Karabakh is
within its immediate neighbourhood, and it also has good relations
with both Armenia and Azerbaijan. The EU is excellent in projecting
soft power. In future this can be an important contribution to the
settlement of the conflict. For example the European Union must be
ready to engage on a big scale with any peace monitoring operation.

We don’t need troops with Tanks and missiles in Karabakh but a
monitoring force of diplomats in jeans and soldiers who can talk
diplomatically as well as they can shoot guns.