Nagorno-Karabakh War 70% Likely, Says Analyst

Tert.am
15:03 – 05.12.09

Yevgeny Minchenko, director of the Russia-based International
Institute for Political Expertise, in an interview with Azerbaijani
news agency News.Az, said that the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict via military means was 70% likely.

Asked if he thought if the `superpowers’ would allow Azerbaijan to
begin a war in Nagorno-Karabakh and whether the Russian military base
in Armenia will intervene, Minchenko said:

`Some of the superpowers (in particular, separate elite groups in the
United States) may view a protracted military conflict as a pressure
factor on the wider Middle East, on the one hand, and on Russia and
the Russia-Old European countries unit, on the other. As for the
involvement of the Russian military base in Armenia in the conflict, I
think this is more likely if it is attacked.’

In the analyst’s opinion, the Kremlin has an interest in the
settlement of the conflict, and in preserving good relations with both
Azerbaijan and Armenia. At the same time, in Minchenko’s opinion, it’s
a great delusion to think that the conflict settlement lies with
Russia.

`Russia was unlucky in being so big and involved in a great many of
its neighbours’ conflicts and even in remote countries by the very
fact of its existence. Russia’s influence on Armenia and Azerbaijan is
quite limited, like its influence on Iran or North Korea,’ said the
institute director.

According to the News.Az interviewer, `If the Armenian-Turkish border
is opened, the US will try to use Ankara to pull Yerevan out of
Moscow’s influence. Russia will lose Yerevan like it lost Georgia. In
turn, Azerbaijan is building its partner relations both with Russia
and the United States. Don’t you think that Moscow would benefit from
trying to settle the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to keep Azerbaijan and
Yerevan in its sphere of influence?’

In response, Minchenko stated that the game Russia plays in the region
is more complex. In his words, `It is not limited to Karabakh. See how
relations between Russia and Turkey are changing today. I think an
attempt to settle the Karabakh conflict by way of force would be
perceived extremely negatively in Moscow.’