The Economist
December 5, 2009
U.S. Edition
Testy Erdogan; Turkey and the West
Claims that Turkey is drifting away from the West seem exaggerated
WHEN Turkey’s prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, meets Barack Obama
in the White House next week, he will insist on his country’s Western
credentials. He will be greeted with a request for more troops to back
the American surge in Afghanistan. Turkey, which has NATO’s
second-biggest army, has 1,700 soldiers on Afghan soil and Turkish
generals have led allied forces there. Yet Mr Erdogan’s mildly
Islamist Justice and Development (AK) Party dislikes American calls to
fight fellow Muslims in Afghanistan. Turkey has opted to train Afghan
security forces and build roads and schools instead. Mr Erdogan will
spurn demands for combat troops.
His Western critics may seize on this as confirmation of Turkey’s
supposed drift away from the West under seven years of AK rule. Mr
Erdogan’s cosiness with Iran and Sudan, plus his salvoes against
Israel, feed claims that he is an Islamist firebrand at heart. His
behaviour has spawned a flurry of hand-wringing in the West.
Yet to Turkish jihadists, who are surfacing in Afghanistan and
Chechnya, Mr Erdogan is an American poodle. It was these home-grown
militants, with links to al-Qaeda, who in November 2003 killed over 60
people in suicide bombings against British and Jewish targets in
Istanbul. If Turkish troops started shooting at fellow Muslims, that
would swell the ranks of Islamist radicals in Turkey. "This is what
America and the West needs to understand," complains an AK official.
America also relies heavily on Turkey for its operations in Iraq. The
Incirlik airbase in southern Turkey is a supply hub for American
troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. As it begins to withdraw from Iraq,
America is turning to Turkey to help Iraqis rebuild.
Indeed, Mr Erdogan may have a harder task explaining to Mr Obama his
reluctance to back new sanctions against Iran. Turkey holds a rotating
seat on the UN Security Council. "Should sanctions come to a vote,
that is when we will know whose side Turkey is on: ours or the other,"
comments a Western diplomat. Iran will be critical for future
relations with America.
Mr Erdogan’s enemies claim that AK’s moves to trim the army’s powers
are not to do with its European Union aspirations but with a desire to
cement religious rule. The Ergenekon case against alleged
coup-plotters was, they argue, cooked up as part of this plan. Their
views have been echoed in some Western newspapers, which have also
condemned a crushing tax slapped on Turkey’s largest media
conglomerate, Dogan. Many note that the fine came only after some
Dogan titles began exposing corruption implicating AK party officials.
The argument is that Mr Erdogan wants to silence a free press to help
Turkey’s move towards Islamic dictatorship.
Mr Erdogan undoubtedly has autocratic instincts. He has taken
journalists and even cartoonists to court. His embrace of Sudan’s
president Omar al-Bashir, charged with war crimes against his own
people, was a disgrace. And he favours a somewhat greater role for
Islam in public life. But he seems committed to Turkey’s EU accession
process, even to pursuing liberalising reforms in Turkey if its EU
hopes are dashed. He wants to resolve Turkey’s problems with its
Kurds. And he is pursuing reconciliation with Armenia. These are
hardly signs of a shift from the West.
And what of his opponents? Deniz Baykal, the leader of the Republican
People’s Party, spends most of his time attacking laws that could help
Turkey’s bid for EU membership. Devlet Bahceli, the leader of the main
nationalist party, said that "swine flu doesn’t exist", though it has
killed almost 200 Turks. As for the army, incriminating documents that
were seized during an investigation show that a group was indeed
hoping to topple Mr Erdogan by, among other things, assassinating
Christians and placing the blame on AK. Why not send them to
Afghanistan?