Hurriyet Daily News, Turkey
Dec 6 2009

Experts focus on Karabakh as top issue in Obama-ErdoÄ?an talks

Sunday, December 6, 2009
Å?AFAK TÄ°MUR
ISTANBUL – Hürriyet Daily News

Turkey will ask the United States to push Armenia to withdraw from
Karabakh during a meeting between the U.S. and Turkish leaders,
international relations experts told the Hürriyet Daily News &
Economic Review.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip ErdoÄ?an and U.S. President Barack
Obama will meet Monday in Washington, D.C.

The experts were asked about Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq and
Turkey-Armenia relations. Most of them emphasized that Turkey would
ask the United States to push Armenia on the Karabakh issue, while
other said ratifying protocols is also a critical matter.

SABRİ SAYARI ` Professor, Sabancı University

Afghanistan: `It is clear that both the government and the parliament
are against Turkey sending combat troops, but contributions to other
fields might be possible,’ said Sayarı, recalling that the National
Security Council, or MGK, had decided not to send combat troops to
Afghanistan. But it is difficult to estimate the content of Turkey’s
contributions to other fields, Sayarı said, adding, `It can be
logistical help.’

Iraq: The withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq will be an issue, Sayarı
said: `It is understood that the U.S. will pull out its forces through
next August, and a significant part of this withdrawal would be over
Turkey. This is a serious issue for the United States. [ErdoÄ?an] might
give messages of support.’ Kirkuk was another possible topic of
discussion, according to Sayarı.

Iran: `This is the most sensitive issue because the views of the two
countries are not in harmony. Turkey would say it would help [the
U.S.] if it negotiates with Iran rather than using military means, and
the U.S. would not approve of that.’

Armenia-Turkey relations: `Turkey would say that we agreed on
protocols, but for its approval in the Turkish Parliament, an
improvement in Karabakh is needed. The U.S. would say they would work
on it, but Turkey would need the protocol to be approved in
Parliament.’

Ä°LTER TURAN ` Professor, Bilgi University

Afghanistan: `Turkey already made significant contributions to the
NATO mission in Afghanistan. Maybe an increase in the number of
non-fighter forces will constitute a topic of discussion. A broadening
of the description of the Turkish forces’ mission may be possible, but
only on the condition that this does not include combat duties.’

Iran: `Turkey has made it clear that it is against military
interventions and sanctions that it considers to be ineffective.
Nevertheless, the prime minister will probably have to concede that
Turkey will abide by the decisions of the U.N. Security Council
concerning Iran.’

Iraq: `The effective cooperation against the PKK [Kurdistan Workers’
Party] should be continued and advanced further. The status of Kirkuk
as part of Iraq should be maintained. Turkey would continue to
cooperate with the U.S. and do its best to contribute to the
maintenance of peace and stability and the enhancement of Iraq’s
economic prosperity.’

Armenia-Turkey relations: `Turkey wants to continue its opening
policy. The continuation of this policy is contingent on Armenia’s
initial withdrawal from Azerbaijani territories, which it has invaded.
U.S. support is needed to persuade Armenia to agree on a plan to
withdraw from occupied regions.’

SEMIH Ä°DÄ°Z ` Columnist, Milliyet

Afghanistan: `Turkey is ready for a contribution to Afghanistan but
will not send combat troops there. Turkey wants to have a role in
training and passive security duties. It cannot come out of this
format; there is a Security Council decision and also other
statements.’

Iran: Turkey will be slightly passive about Iran, although it will say
the doors of dialogue should not be closed, according to Ä°diz, who
said Iranian leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has raised the bar so high
that there is nothing left to discuss. `The prime minister might
receive demands [from the U.S] to convince Iran. I do not think that
ErdoÄ?an will be able to have a proactive approach about Iran,’ Ä°diz
said. `Ahmadinejad did not help his friend [ErdoÄ?an] that much on this
issue.’

Iraq: `The message saying, `We should continue working together.
Iraq’s territorial integrity and stability is important,’ will be
given to the U.S.’

Turkey-Armenia relations: `ErdoÄ?an is going to say that Turkey is
serious and the government is determined [about the Armenian opening.]
He declared this to the public a couple of times as well. He is also
going to say that an improvement on the Karabakh issue will have a
positive impact [on Turkey] and accelerate the process.’

MEHMET YEGÄ°N ` Expert, International Strategic Research Organization

Afghanistan: `Turkey is going to insist on not sending combat troops
to Afghanistan,’ Yegin said. As a country trying to increase its soft
power in the region and do business in the region by hiding its
military aspect, he added, sending combat troops would be a serious
departure from Turkey’s policy.

Iraq: Turkey’s cooperation on Iraq will increase, according to Yegin,
as its reservations about the PKK are eliminated. `Especially about
northern Iraq, Turkey was standing back even about naming [that
region], but now Turkey has close relations and contact on diplomatic
grounds. Opening a consulate in the northern Iraqi capital is being
debated,’ he said.

Iran: `Turkey has close relations with Iran, and after this it is
difficult to move with the United States. An intermediary role for
Turkey? Both sides and especially Iran had not accepted this. So an
intermediary role again for Turkey for now, I do not know. What is for
Turkey’s benefit is to reduce the tension between Iran and the U.S.
and to prevent any harm for itself in case of a possible conflict.’

Turkey-Armenia relations: `ErdoÄ?an should give a message to the U.S.
to push Armenia to withdraw from Karabakh. If this is done, peace will
come. If not, all of the improvements will stop.’

JAMES H. HOLMES ` President, American-Turkish Council

Afghanistan/Pakistan: `Turkey has a lot of experience in the region
and is already making numerous valuable contributions, but the needs
are huge. If Turkey would accept a larger responsibility for the
security training objectives, that would be a huge assist to the
president and his plan, and an acceptable alternative to the priority
preference of combat forces.’

Iraq: `Here, too, Turkey has made substantial contributions through
its diplomatic, training and economic efforts in both Baghdad and
Arbil. Truly a remarkable turn-around in Turkey-Iraq diplomacy and
relations in the past 18 months. The U.S. needs to reaffirm to Turkey
that as it draws down its forces in Iraq, it remains sensitive to the
premier requirement of leaving behind a unitary Iraq.’

Iran: `The U.S. believes Turkey when it says that it is no less
concerned about a nuclear Tehran, and that Ankara speaks very directly
and candidly with Tehran about those concerns. But the optics of this
have been all wrong from Washington’s perspective. Washington probably
does not object to Ankara developing good relations with Tehran, and
likely even sees some advantages to it. But the PR proportions have
been wrong: Ankara cannot put its arm around Ahmadinejad and say he is
the victim of nuclear gossip when all the world knows [from the IAEA
report] that he’s thumbing his nose at the U.N. and the enormous
efforts being made by others to resolve the matter diplomatically.’

Turkey-Armenia relations: `Find some way to keep making progress on
the protocols. The U.S. also doesn’t want to lose Azerbaijan in the
process and will accelerate its efforts in the Minsk process. It will
require some political courage, but Washington is convinced that
diplomatic normalization can lead to speedy progress on
[Nagorno-Karabakh] issues. Step-by-step, because the `big bang’
solution would not work.’

Steve Larrabee ` Senior Political Scientist, Rand Corporation

Iran: `Obama will try to persuade ErdoÄ?an of the need for tougher
sanctions against Iran if Tehran continues to reject the offer to ship
its nuclear fuel for processing outside Iran and comply with IAEA
regulations,’ Larrabee said, adding that this is the most critical
issue between the two countries. He said a refusal by ErdoÄ?an to
support tougher sanctions against Tehran on such an important
international security issue could seriously damage Turkey’s relations
with the U.S. and European allies.

Afghanistan: `Obama will try to persuade ErdoÄ?an to increase Turkey’s
commitment in Afghanistan, but knowing Turkey’s reluctance to send
more combat troops, he will probably settle for an increase of other
forms of non-combat support.’

Iraq: `Obama would express support for Turkey’s recent efforts to
improve relations with the Kurdish regional government as well as the
domestic `Kurdish opening,’ encouraging ErdoÄ?an to continue both,’
Larrabee said, adding that Obama would also encourage Turkey to
increase its cooperation with the new Iraqi government. According to
Larrabee, Obama will reiterate his commitment to withdraw the bulk of
U.S. forces from Iraq by 2011 but leave open the possibility of
maintaining a small residual force to train Iraqi military and police
forces if the Iraqi government wants such a U.S. force to stay.

Turkey-Armenia relations: Obama will express strong support for
Turkey’s effort to improve relations with Armenia, Larrabee said. At
the same time, he added, the U.S. president will emphasize the
importance of closely coordinating future steps with Baku in order to
avoid a serious deterioration of relations with Azerbaijan.

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