EX-CHAIRMAN OF ARMENIAN CENTRAL BANK PREDICTS DEEPENING OF ECONOMIC SLUMP IN 2010

ArmInfo
2009-12-10 17:58:00

ArmInfo. Deepening of economic slump should be expected in 2010:
the GDP will reduce by 1-2%, ex-chairman of Armenian Central Bank,
Bagrat Asatryan, made such a prediction at today’s press-conference.

He also added that decrease of GDP level by 1-2% is possible in case
of the optimistic scenario taking into account the expected growth
of industry by 2-2,5%, agriculture – by 2%, construction- 5%. As for
trade and services, he predicts further slump in 2010.

He thinks that in absolute expression the GDP level will amount 3,1
trillion drams by the end of 2009. At the same time the economic slump
will amount to more than 15% according to the results of the current
year. If we calculate the GDP level in dollars, the economic slump
will amount to 33% over the current year. He thinks that transmission
from the regime of the floating exchange rate to the fixed one in
2008 is one the main reasons of such a big economic slump in Armenia.

The expert also predicts negative dynamics of foreign trade. He
said that certain activation of export thanks to a little growth of
industry is expected. Nevertheless, deficit of foreign trade balance
will amount to $2.5 bln till the end of 2009. He also assured, that
reduction of the financial receipts, including private transfers,
is also expected in 2010.

He also predicts that in 2010 prices for bakery products will also grow
in 2010 in Armenia whereas the bread price reduced in all over the
world. Asatryan thinks that high monopolization and corruption still
remain the main obstacle for development of the economy of Armenia.

Despite negative prediction, Asatryan predicts improvement of the
situation in 2011.