UPHILL TURKEY-ARMENIA PROCESS SIGNALS PROBLEMS FOR ANKARA: TURKISH NEWSPAPER
ArmInfo
2009-12-10 16:01:00
ArmInfo. Failure to implement the Ankara-Yerevan normalization deal
will likely strengthen ‘genocide bills’ in US Congress, The Hurriyet
Daily News reported. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s talks
with U.S. President Barack Obama at the White House earlier this week
have mostly been viewed as a success by analysts. However, an uphill
reconciliation process between Turkey and Armenia may be the sign of
a creeping deterioration in U.S.-Turkish ties next year.
The newspaper reports that in a letter to some major Armenian-American
groups last week, Obama also said, "Normalization between Armenia
and Turkey should move forward without preconditions and within a
reasonable timeframe."
Erdogan told Obama that reopening the border before progress is
achieved in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict would ruin Turkey’s ties with
Azerbaijan and be viewed as completely unacceptable to Turkish voters.
"The normalization process between Turkey and Armenia is very much
related to these issues (of improvement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani
ties)," Erdogan told reporters at the White House. His remarks were
seen by some that the Turkish parliament would most probably not
ratify any normalization deal with Armenia before strong signs are
observed for an end to the Armenian occupation of Azerbaijani lands.
But even at a time when Washington is pushing for the normalization
process to be implemented "without preconditions and within a
reasonable timeframe," analysts agree that strong progress toward
putting an end to the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute seems unlikely, at
least in the short term. These all point to a potential stall in the
Turkey-Armenia reconciliation process. Obama, who as a candidate
had pledged to recognize the Armenian killings as "genocide" if
elected president during last year’s election campaign, reversed his
position as president this year and fully backed the Ankara-Yerevan
normalization process, saying he would refrain from any move that
would jeopardize the process. The Obama administration is expected
to continue to oppose congressional "genocide" recognition resolutions.
With the probable failure of the Turkey-Armenia normalization process,
the Armenian-American groups and their congressional backers are
planning to re-launch a strong campaign for the passage of two
"genocide" resolutions pending in the House of Representatives and
the Senate, the lower and upper chambers of Congress, respectively.
But in a year of election-related uncertainties in 2010, if such a
bill, by any chance, is passed by either the House or the Senate, the
Ankara-Yerevan normalization deal would be imperiled and U.S.-Turkish
relations could suffer in a major and lasting way, as Turkey has
already warned. Important congressional elections will take place in
November 2010, with the whole 435-member House and about one third
of the 100-member Senate to be renewed. And election years are times
when the influence of ethnic and interest lobbies are the strongest
in U.S. politics, the Turkish newspaper writes.