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Azerbaijan: A doomed player in Karabakh game?
Fri, 11 Dec 2009 03:03:40 GMT
Press TV of Iran

By Tarâné Kaveh

It has been almost 21 years since the Republic of Azerbaijan and
Armenia engaged in an armed conflict over the 4400-square-kilometer
(1,700-square-mile) mountainous Karabakh region.

After six years of intensive fighting, about 20 percent of
Azerbaijan’s land, including seven towns surrounding Karabakh, was
occupied; up to one million Azerbaijanis were displaced and some
40,000 people from both sides were killed.

The conflict, known as the Nagorno-Karabakh war, which broke out in
February 1988, ended in a ceasefire on May 16, 1994, but there has
been no agreement so far to turn the ceasefire into a permanent peace
treaty.

However, it appears that in the closing days of 2009, efforts have
increased to realize the long-awaited peace between the two neighbors.

Most of the activities in this respect have been made by the
Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk
Group, which was established in 1992 to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict. The OSCE Minsk Group is co-chaired by the United States,
France and Russia.

Among the efforts made to establish peace between the two parties
involved in the conflict were: The statement of the OSCE Minsk Group
co-chairmen at the G8 summit, two meetings between the presidents of
Armenia and Azerbaijan in Moscow at Russian mediation, the meeting
between the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Moldovan
capital of Chisinau, the meeting of the two leaders in Munich, the
meeting of the two countries’ foreign ministers at the 17th OSCE
Ministerial Council in Athens which issued a statement stressing on
the need for the two sides to continue negotiations.

Although there has been a number of futile attempts by the OSCE Minsk
Group in this regard, new developments and equations have come to the
play this time around that make a distinction between the recent wave
of efforts and the previous proceedings. One distinction is that
formerly the OSCE Minsk Group was merely trying to manage the conflict
between Azerbaijan and Armenia, whereas this time it seems to be
attempting to actually establish peace.

Most analysts believe there is a mutual consent between the United
States and Russia, which is they both would prefer the Karabakh issue
resolved in favor of Armenia – in other words, they both want Karabakh
to officially become part of Armenia.

What is crystal clear is that after meetings between US President
Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Washington scraped
a plan to deploy an anti-missile defense system in Eastern Europe and
with the exception of the 2008 Caucasus conflict – after which the US
sided with Georgia – the two sides have seen eye to eye on issues
relating to the Caucasus region. Among such issues are normalization
of relations between Turkey and Armenia as well as Azerbaijan and
Armenia.

It remains to be seen whether there has been any secret agreement
between Moscow and Washington; however, the two powers seem to have
reached an understanding on major issues such as the Middle East,
Afghanistan, the Nabucco pipeline etc.

The Russia-Georgia war erupted on August 7, 2008 after Tbilisi
launched a major offensive against the independence-seeking province
of South Ossetia in a bid to take control of the region. Russia, the
main ally of South Ossetia, repelled the attack by sending in armed
convoys and military combat aircraft and drove deep into Georgia. Most
South Ossetians hold Russian citizenship.

Following the conflict the United States has deemed Georgia ‘unsafe’
as a transit route for the Caspian Sea gas and is seeking to find
alternative energy routes in the South Caucasus.

Russia on the other hand, finds cooperation with the United States an
effective measure in safeguarding the achievements it made through war
with Georgia. These are examples of each side’s motives for
maintaining cooperation with respect to the Caucasus region.

Members of the OSCE Minsk Group have hinted that they all support a
resolution to the Karabakh issue in favor of Armenia. Their financial
and political support for the self-proclaimed Karabakh Republic or
even supporting the separatist leaders in the region all point to that
direction.

It is true that the interests of the United States, France and Russia
have run counter to each other at different periods of time and in
different corners of the world. However, when it comes to the Karabakh
issue, it appears that all three are willing to ignore Azerbaijan’s
claims on the region.

Therefore, one is left with no other option but to assume that the
OSCE Minsk Group’s framework is based on persuading Azerbaijan to
submit to the so-called Madrid Principles.

Although there has been little transparency regarding the Madrid
Principles, unofficial reports suggest that the principles call for an
international peacekeeping force to be deployed in the region and call
for a referendum on the status of Karabakh – which is believed to
result in the region’s eventual separation from Azerbaijan.

The OSCE Minsk Group has unsuccessfully made attempts to execute
similar plans in the past. However, back then the member states did
not share the same view on the manner in which the Karabakh issue
should be ‘managed’ nor did they – as former US state secretary Colin
Powell suggested – deem the public was ready for such a development.

Another factor taken into consideration is that Azerbaijan is
currently weaker than ever. A few years back, with high oil revenues
and high military funding, Baku was hinting at an imminent breakout of
another armed conflict in the region. The global financial meltdown
and falling oil prices, however, have proven problematic for
Azerbaijan.

Should the status quo continue Azerbaijan will be doomed to submit to
unfair terms of a Western-dictated peace treaty, which would only take
Armenian’s interests into consideration.

Baku’s only chance is to launch a full-throttle diplomatic campaign to
break away from the OSCE Minsk Group in its current form. Azerbaijan
can make progress through calling on the United Nations, the
Organization of Islamic Conference and neighboring countries like Iran
for their effective mediations on the Karabakh issue, which could in
turn rescue Baku from an impossible political situation.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress