TURKISH EXPERT: TURKEY-ARMENIA PROTOCOLS NOT TO BE INCLUDED IN TURKISH PARLIAMENT’S AGENDA

Today.Az
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14 December 2009 [12:09]

Day.Az interview with Nigar Geksel, Turkish expert, senior analyst
at European Stability Initiative.

Day.Az: What are your views concerning Turkish Prime Minister Recep
Tayyip Erdogan’s statement that Turkey will normalize relations with
Armenia only after resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict marks
a real progress?

Nigar Geksel: At a joint press conference with U.S. President
Barack Obama, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said
normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations is linked with the
process on Nagorno-Karabakh conflict carried out by the OSCE Minsk
Group. Turkish MPs and officials have constantly stated the same in
recent months. It seems Turkey will not ratify the protocols signed
with Armenia until a progress in settlement of the Karabakh conflict.

But there are still vague points in this process. For example,
will liberation of seven Armenia-occupied regions of Azerbaijan be
enough for Turkey to ratify the protocols? Furthermore, what Turkey
will do to demonstrate that the process of normalizing relations with
Armenia continues to prevent the U.S. Congress from adopting a bill on
"genocide" in April next year?

Turkey seeks to help achieve progress in resolving the Karabakh
conflict within the OSCE Minsk Group. Some questions will arise unless
there is no result in the conflict settlement. If Turkey is not going
to push the protocols through the parliament, then why it needed to
bring the negotiations with Armenia until this point? Turkey risks
to be deceived by the West and Armenia and lose credibility. But
Turkey may acquire credibility once there is certain progress in the
Karabakh issue. It’s like a gamble – you can win or to say "I wish
I never played."

So, you doubt ratification of the protocols any time soon…

Apparently, as I noted above, the protocols will not be included in
agenda of the Turkish parliament till there is progress in resolving
the Karabakh conflict.

Even in event of pressure on Turkey?

I believe, Turkey is under pressure both from Europe and the United
States. The logic of many Western officials and organizations is as
follows: "Armenian leader’s taking simultaneous steps in normalizing
Turkish-Armenian relations and settlement of the Karabakh conflict
is impossible due to internal politics in Armenia itself and in terms
of violation of public balance in this country."

The solution of the Karabakh problem will continue for long. It would
better to open the Turkish-Armenian border rather than to wait for
the settlement of the conflict which is the only step that will boost
solution of all problems in the region. Thus, it will be possible to
reduce Armenia’s dependence on Russia and Armenia’s claims to Turkey.

This creates a situation where Armenia is granted a kind of
compensation in the Karabakh issue."

I think, this pressure has slightly decreased.

Many experts believe that the Karabakh problem might be solved in
near future. What is your opinion on this?

I think it would be difficult to achieve this as I have been
communicating with people of Azerbaijan and Armenia. Unfortunately,
I am not quite aware of processes taking place between countries at the
highest level. Nevertheless, I hope that the conflict will be resolved.

Do you think that Erdogan’s initiative to establish the Caucasus
Stability and Development Platform is premature given the current
problems in relations between potential members of this association?

The platform, as one of the fundamental reasons for Turkish President
Abdullah Gul’s visit to Armenia, has proved itself in the Turkish
society. This platform was still on the agenda during President
Demirel’s tenure and included also the European Union and the United
States. But their absence in the current version has arisen a number
of issues. There were suspicions that this platform aims to reduce
Western influence in the region. It is somewhat like scenario which
Georgia has set for itself.

It is widely believed in Turkey that country’s credibility can be
enhanced through the same approach to all countries in the region.

This is a controversial thesis since such an approach might disturb
those countries who consider Turkey their ally.

It is impossible to combine countries in the region in a single bloc
when there is difference between Azerbaijan and Armenia and Russia and
Georgia. Regardless of Turkey’s desire to play role of a unifier, the
reality is that in the region there are countries that have their own
calculations. We should not expect that the platform will significantly
change the situation in the region until this reality changes.