LOOK NORTH FOR OPPORTUNITY

By The Daily Star
Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Most places in the world are suffering the ramifications of the global
economic slowdown, but this doesn’t mean that things are standing
still.Arab societies, and perhaps our economies as well, are often
geared toward looking west, or east, for opportunity, but events to
the north of us shouldn’t be discounted. Russian officials have begun
the process of forging a customs union with Kazakhstan and Belarus.

The nucleus of a potentially dynamic trading bloc is taking shape,
and if the effort proves to be a success, other countries from the
former Soviet Union will be anxious to get on board.

Of course, the future course of Russia remains unknown, given the
dichotomy between Dmitry Medvedev and Vladimir Putin, the former
promoting policies of European Union-style cooperation, and the latter
projecting the dreams of resurrecting a Russian empire. Nevertheless,
the lifting of trade and customs barriers among the three countries
could spur robust growth, with Central Asian states like Kyrgyzstan
and Tajikistan expressing enthusiasm about the project.

Another "northern" development is the process of normalization between
Turkey and Armenia. When the various hurdles to Turkish-Armenian
relations are finally cleared, the potential benefits of open borders
could spur considerable economic activity and generate opportunities
for investment in these two countries.

Although the two peoples share a history of conflict, their
rapprochement is spurring serious interest in potential investment
opportunities. They share technical and industrial prowess, and a good
level of demand, and if their relationship takes off, their economies
will constitute an attractive destination for investment flows.

Arab countries that remain awash in oil and gas money can look
northward for investment opportunities, in the dynamic areas of the
former Soviet Union, and the promising markets of a reconciled Turkey
and Armenia.

This type of investment isn’t about altruism; individuals, corporations
and state investors want to make money, and this will happen if the
policies and measures in these countries are sound. They can also make
a mark by investing in stability, as in the Turkish-Armenian arena,
which could have knock-on benefits for neighboring countries. These
developments also represent a chance to gain a foothold in key sectors
like energy, industry and foodstuffs, as well as the always-attractive
destination of European markets.

The world might be under the spell of the global financial crisis, but
the news from the north is the latest indication that not everything
is static, or that initiatives and opportunities have dried up.