ARMENIA’S ATTEMPTS ARE DOOMED TO FAILURE

Today.Az
17 December 2009

Leading world powers are forced to consider the position and
interests of the Azerbaijani-Turkish tandem for the sake of their
own geopolitical interests.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan’s U.S. trip sheds light
on numerous issues connected with normalizing Armenian-Turkish
relations and resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Until then,
many Armenians claimed Ankara’s statement that it is impossible to
normalize Armenia-Turkey ties without resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict was designed for domestic and Azerbaijani audiences. However,
Erdogan made quite a different statement in the West.

The Turkish prime minister reiterated his position at a joint
news conference with U.S. President Barack Obama, who is the major
initiator of normalizing Armenian-Turkish relations. Erdogan made it
clear that the protocols on the normalization of Armenian-Turkish
relations have no preconditions. He immediately noted the Turkish
parliament has only one precondition to ratify these protocols –
the settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

First, Erdogan’s statement at the high-level U.S.-Turkish meetings
is a significant event. Much more important for Azerbaijan, though,
is the U.S. president’s reaction to the statement. He just kept silent.

And silence, as they say, is a sign of consent.

Second, the statement voiced later by Washington and Moscow confirmed
that leading centers of world power see Turkish-Armenian relations
and the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict as interdependent
processes. The U.S. hopes that Armenia-Turkey rapprochement will impact
the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. U.S. Assistant Secretary of
State Philip Gordon shared this view in a conversation with reporters
almost immediately after the U.S.-Turkey talks.

In response to the question how the White House sees the fate of
Armenian-Turkish relations after Obama’s talks with Erdogan, Gordon
said the U.S. backs Armenian-Turkish normalization and wants the
protocols to be ratified soon, which will benefit Turkey and Armenia
and help boost peace and stability in the region.

"The U.S. is also involved in resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

This topic is important not because we see it linked with
Armenian-Turkish relations, but because it can also impact the
stability in the region that will benefit both Azerbaijan and Armenia.

We are concerned over this matter and we want it to be moved forward,"
he noted.

Gordon also added that Georgia is the only point of contradiction
between Washington and Moscow.

Thus, the State Department official actually admitted the importance
of parallel solutions to both issues. Gordon’s statement coincides
with the estimates of a number of local experts who indicate some
correction in Washington’s position in light of Erdogan’s visit.

Moreover, Gordon almost admitted that the U.S. and Russia are close
to reaching an agreement on the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict. Gordon’s statement that Georgia is the only point of
contradiction between Washington and Moscow cannot be interpreted
otherwise.

Russian Foreign Ministry senior official Andrey Nesterenko stated
almost simultaneously that "Azerbaijan and Armenia are on the way to
a serious breakthrough on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue."

Nesterenko added that "if the positive dynamics achieved in
negotiations this year are maintained next year, there will be reason
to expect the basic principles will be coordinated quickly and finally
and a text of the peace agreement will be prepared on their basis."

Third, it does not matter that the interested parties publicly
declare that the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations and
the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict are not linked in
terms of time. However, the fact is that they are doing everything
possible to link the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations
and the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in terms of
time. So, if Washington and Moscow reach agreement on the settlement of
regional conflicts, except for the Georgia-Russia situation, Armenian
President Serzh Sargsyan will not be able to resist this powerful union
whatever he says. All his attempts to prolong the settlement of the
Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict are doomed to failure.

Finally, there is a need to answer the following question – which
factors influence Russia’s and America’s willingness to act as a
single bloc to resolve the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict? The main determining factor influencing leading world powers
is the inviolability of the Azerbaijani-Turkish tandem. Events have
shown that attempts to split the tandem will fail.

The strength of this tandem is that the realization of many
geopolitical interests of world players depends on its position. For
example, without Azerbaijan’s and Turkey’s support, the West, above
all, the U.S., will never be able to implement the Nabucco project. To
develop and implement a unified strategy against Iran’s nuclear
program, the U.S. and Russia also need to agree with Azerbaijan and
Turkey, as the emergence of another nuclear power in the volatile
region does not the meet interests of not only Russia and America,
but also Azerbaijan and Turkey, who are Iran’s neighbors.

Russia cannot implement its energy strategy and the U.S. its Middle
East strategy without Turkey.

It should be noted that Armenia’s participation is not required in
solving problems that are of a geopolitical importance for leading
world powers. Simply put, Armenia’s help is not required to resolve
these issues. So, major world powers are forced to consider the
position and interests of the Azerbaijani-Turkish tandem not for love,
but for the sake of their own geopolitical interests.