TURKEY-ARMENIA PROCESS AT TURNING POINT
David Judson
Hurriyet
Dec 18 2009
Turkey
Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov, left, shares a word
with Armenia’s Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian. AP photo
Time is running out for Turkey to ratify the border-opening deal
with Armenia that began with a football match last year and reached
the stage of signing normalization protocols in October, Armenia’s
foreign minister has said.
"The whole world has supported these protocols and they should
be approved at once," said Edward Nalbandian, repeatedly voicing
frustration that the deal has become embroiled with Turkish demands
for progress on the frozen conflict between Azerbaijan and the
Armenian-occupied enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Nalbandian repeatedly used the protocol language that the ratification
process be concluded in a "reasonable period of time." But his tone
and comments from other officials here made it clear that sooner is
better and Armenia will withdraw from the talks if progress does not
occur by March.
"In March, there will be a point of no return. January is the best
timeframe. After that, every morning it will be more difficult to do
this than the day before," said Vigen Sarkisian, the deputy chief of
the Armenian presidency.
He signaled that a catalyst for the sense of urgency is the symbolic
date of April 24, when Armenians mark the claim of genocide that
strongly divides the two countries. That date drove the two sides to
the initial signing of the "road map" that preceded the protocols.
The first formal step came just one day ahead of that date this year,
propelled by pressure from U.S. President Barack Obama, who Turkey
feared would voice the word "genocide," setting the stage for the U.S.
Congress to recognize the killing of Armenians in the final days of
the Ottoman Empire with the same term.
Skepticism over thaw
In a twist of linguistic diplomacy, Obama instead referred to the
events of 1915 of "Meds Yeghern," Armenian for "great calamity." No
one, however, expects that nuance to work a second time.
Armenians here have made it clear they are worried about both domestic
political pressure and reaction from America’s Armenian diaspora,
which has been skeptical of the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement,
as the symbolic moment again nears.
However, it was Turkey’s domestic politics that was on the minds of
Armenian officials and journalists who came together in Yerevan for
four days of discussion organized by Armenia’s Eurasia Partnership
Foundation and Turkey’s Global Political Trends Center from Istanbul
Kultur University.
Shortly after the October protocol signing, Turkish Prime Minister
Recep Tayyip Erdogan traveled to Azerbaijan in the wake of Azerbaijani
outrage over the possibility of a border opening without progress on
Armenia’s de facto occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh.
The enclave and other occupied territory constitute 20 percent of
Azerbaijan. In 1993, Turkey closed its land border with Armenia
in solidarity with Azerbaijan, which not only lost the enclave in
the conflict but was also forced to cope with the nearly 1 million
refugees who fled the fighting.
Erdogan’s statement, and similar remarks since, have calmed Azerbaijani
fears and eased threats of retaliation through energy pricing, but
have sparked Armenian accusations that Turkey is violating the terms of
the protocol that stipulate a border opening with "no preconditions."
Many Armenians feel they have done their part of the "no
pre-conditions" deal by not insisting on Turkish recognition of the
word "genocide." Domestically, the stance has been hotly debated and is
a major reason for parliamentary and diaspora opposition to the deal.
‘Historical dimension’
A stumbling block for opposition deputy Stepan Safarian is the protocol
language that would establish a commission to look at the "historical
dimension" of relations. The avoidance of specific "genocide" language
allows both sides to interpret the document differently, said Safarian,
leader of the "Heritage Faction" in the Armenian parliament.
"How can a protocol perceived differently by two sides be a good
protocol?" he asked.
After the initial agreement, one party in the governing coalition of
Armenian President Serge Sarkisian withdrew from the government. That
deal also forced the Armenian president to go on a tour of diaspora
communities in the United States to sell his plan to skeptics.
Officials here said that campaign had been successful, and some
elements of the powerful diaspora have been convinced of the wisdom
of improving relations with Turkey.
Deputy Artak Zakarian told journalists that an annual fundraising drive
among diaspora communities this year exceeded last year’s receipts,
an indicator of sympathy with the government’s direction.
Armenia’s parliament has yet to ratify the protocol and officials
here said they would do so only if the Turkish Parliament does so
first. As the initiative began with Sarkisian’s invitation to Turkish
President Abdullah Gul to attend the now-famous football match,
Turkey’s legislature should be the first to ratify, they argued.
As to any step, however symbolic, on Nagorno-Karabakh, Nalbandian and
his colleagues insisted this is an absolute non-starter. The two issues
are distinct and "parallel," they repeated, and cannot be coupled.
"There can be no preconditions – in the protocols there are absolutely
no preconditions," Nalbandian said, adding during a press conference
that he was "saddened that three journalists have now asked the same
question about Armenia taking a step on Nagorno-Karabakh."
He said the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents have met repeatedly
on the matter, and that is where any discussion of Nagorno-Karabakh
must remain.
He said it would be inappropriate for him to comment on the domestic
politics of Turkey behind Erdogan’s declarations but said if the
border-opening initiative dies, it will be the next generation of
Turks and Armenians who will have to resolve their differences.
"Turkey and Armenia have been divided for nearly 100 years," he said.
"Let’s not live this for another 100 years."
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
