news.az, Azerbaijan
Dec 19 2009

Despite West’s pressure Turkey will remain loyal to promises given to
Azerbaijan
Sat 19 December 2009 | 08:08 GMT Text size:

Oqtay Sadikhzade News.Az interviews Oqtay Sadikhzade, Azerbaijani
political scientist.

Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov is expected to pay an
official visit to Turkey. What do you expect from the visit
considering the recent developments in the bilateral ties?

This will be an extremely important visit for the Azerbaijani-Turkish
interstate relations in anticipation of the possible ratification of
the Turkish-Armenian protocols. The situation is clear. The
Azerbaijani side and the Turkish political leadership have repeatedly
noted that the future of these protocols are more than vague without
the real progress in the issue of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. I
think the visit will again stress the strategic partnership between
Turkey and Azerbaijan and Ankara will keep its promise to Azerbaijan
despite the influence of the United States and EU. We know that
President Barack Obama also said it is senseless to bind the
ratification of the Armenian-Turkish protocols to the progress in the
Karabakh settlement during the recent visit of Turkish Premier Erdogan
to the United States. It is a great pity that the US position does not
comply with the spirit of the Azerbaijani-Turkish cooperation and
dialogue. At the same time, we are independent states and it is not
obligatory that the positions of all countries coincide on all issues
including the positions of such strategic partners as the United
States and Turkey.

Do you think Turkey will be able to stand West’s pressure and not to
ratify the said protocols?

I think the United States should realize that the three-million
Armenian diaspora is certainly a serious factor but Turkey is the
main, key partner of the United States in Southeastern Europe.
Cooperation and mutual understanding with Ankara means more than
several millions of Americans of Armenian ethnic. Much is left to the
next presidential elections in the United States. And I think Mr.Obama
will not pronounce the word `genocide’ on 24 April 2010. Not only the
United States but also EU will put a certain pressure on Ankara
especially considering the complicated internal political situation in
Turkey including connected with the unsettled Kurdish issue. But I
think EU is not ready to admit Turkey even without this problem. EU
will make up many reasons in order not to admit this country. EU will
insist on the withdrawal of Turkish troops from the Cyprus or put
forward other claims. The recent referendum on minarets in Switzerland
showed that the Christian world is not ready to understand and open
its doors to the Islamic world. But I think this is a matter of time.
EU itself needs transformation processes.

As is known, Azerbaijan has stated readiness to liberate its lands
from Armenian occupation by way of war in case negotiations are
ineffective. May Baku raise the issue of creating a military alliance
with Ankara during Mammadyarov’s visit?

Today Ankara is not ready to sign the due treaty of creation of a
military and technical alliance with us. We understand that it has its
hands ties in this issue because of the obligations before NATO.
Therefore, Azerbaijan does not insist on signing a military treaty.
Meanwhile, we can boost military and technical cooperation especially
in light of the anniversary of creation of defense industry of
Azerbaijan that has over 100 contracts with 27 countries and exhibits
over 60 military productions on the international level. But certainly
the issue will finally come to the creation of the Azerbaijani-Turkish
alliance.

Are there chances that Armenia will realize the need for the goodwill
withdrawal from the occupied Azerbaijani lands?

Unfortunately, Armenia is not ready even for partial withdrawal of its
troops. But the ball is in the Armenian part of the field and Yerevan
realizes it. On the other hand, Sargsyan’s position is more than
shaky. The fact of the signing of protocols with Turkey causes
indignation in the Armenian society and raises the risk of coup while
the goodwill surrender of several regions will cause further
resentment.

Leyla Tagiyeva
News.Az