Denial Pays off for Erdogan in Washington
By Editor on Dec 19, 2009

By Edmond Azadian

Many people entertained a very naive view that the protocols signed
between Armenia and Turkey could take on a life of their own and
create some facts on the ground, which we may never reverse.

Also, Armenian policymakers pinned the hope on the international
community by thinking that sending the ball to the Turkish court could
give Yerevan the upper hand in its negotiations with Turkey. But it
turns out that despite having the ball in its court, Ankara will not
nudge it away from its perceived interests, no matter what. The test
came at the Obama-Erdogan meeting at the White House, which lasted
four times the anticipated time slot, and ran into a diplomatic snag,
which caused the resignation of the Turkish ambassador in Washington.

Among the issues discussed between the two heads of states were the
Protocols signed between Armenia and Turkey. Turkish Prime Minister
Erdogan had a list of goods, which he has been able to peddle
successfully in Washington.

One of the issues which have stopped Turkey’s admission into the
European Union – the Cyprus problem – was not even brought to the
negotiation table. Although the Turkish daily Hurriyet, in its
December 9 issue, states that President Obama has threatened Prime
Minister Erdogan that the US Congress may adopt the Armenian Genocide
Resolution should Turkey fail or delay the ratification of the
protocols. That may not be true, or even if it is true, it has not
made any impression on Erdogan. Because, coming out of the White
House, even at a press conference at Johns Hopkins University, Erdogan
has adamantly stuck to his denialist gun by stating, `We absolutely
refute the Genocide accusations. That is an outright lie. I call upon
supporters of that notion to come up with the proof. Our ancestors
could not have committed a genocide.’

In view of this blatant denial, the joint committee to study the
Armenian Genocide will be stillborn, since Mr. Erdogan knows in
advance the conclusion of the yet-to-be-formed historical commission.

Mr. Erdogan has also refused to accommodate Mr. Obama’s appeal to send
troops to Afghanistan. Instead, he has promised to patch up the
strained Turkish-Israeli relations, which is a top priority on
Washington’s foreign policy establishment agenda.

Erdogan came out of the White House as a winner, as his subsequent
actions and statements have demonstrated.

A sure indication of that arrogance is the banning of the pro-Kurdish
political party (Democratic Society Party), which holds 20 seats in
the Turkish parliament, meanwhile intensifying the repressive war
against the Kurdish minority. The `opening’ approach to the Kurdish
minority issue was a much-heralded political move, admired by the
European nations.

The reversal of the short-lived milder Kurdish policy has its impact
on the reconciliation with Armenia, since both were part and parcel of
the human rights opening in Turkey.

Erdogan and his government believe that they have a strong support in
some quarters to be able to trample human rights issues and to
challenge greater powers. The US is still behind Turkey’s entry into
the European Union despite Turkey’s arrogance to challenge all the
conditions set by the European Union.
In all its actions and policy decisions, Turkey has held on to the
axiom that might is right, since it is a strong military power and has
never hesitated to flex its muscles to impose its will on its
neighbors. Based on that strength, it has shrewdly manipulated Europe,
the US and now even Russia to put that power to their use, so that
they may achieve their goals in the region. Conversely, it has
enlisted the support of major powers in pursuing its own agenda.
Therefore, Turkey has shown it can get away with murder and survive.

The protocol issue also has to be analyzed within this context. Our
pundits and armchair diplomats recommend all kinds of policy positions
to the Armenian government, sometimes without realizing that any
action or political posturing has to be commensurate to one’s
resources, and that they also need to be in line with the interests of
major powers. The economic and political pressure on Armenia is
overwhelming. Its government cannot behave as Turkey does. A case in
point is the profuse praise showered on Turkey by the former European
Union Foreign Policy Chief Javier Solana upon the signing of the
Protocols, as if there was only one side in the deal. The scenario was
repeated at the White House as well.

In reality, Turkey has committed a crime by blockading Armenia and is
enjoying praise simply on the promise of good conduct. Mind you, it is
only a promise, which may or may not even materialize. No mention is
made of its repeated, ongoing violation of international law, not only
with regard to its neighbor, Armenia, but also domestically with
regard to quashing dissent.

After signing the Protocols, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmed Tavoutoglu
had a prepared speech which would have contradicated the spirit of the
Protocols, which were signed under the presumption of there being no
preconditions. At that time, Secretary of State Hilary Clinton was
able to stop that speech. Now those preconditions are emerging and
most members of the Turkish leadership insist the Protocols will not
be ratified by the Turkish Parliament unless the Nagorno Karabagh
issue is settled to the benefit of Azerbaijan. That announcement was
made by Davoutoglu in Athens, after his meeting with the Azeri Foreign
Minister Mamedyarov. It was also repeated by Erdogan himself in
Washington, with an added sarcastic twist that the Turkish Parliament
is an independent body and that the executive branch cannot influence
its decision. In truth, everyone knows that Erdogan’s party holds the
majority vote in the parliament and it can pass any resolution that
the party – i.e., Erdogan – wishes.

Azerbaijan has been pushing the envelope too far by consistently
issuing threats of war. Neither the OSCE nor the Council of Europe
have yet slapped Azerbaijan’s wrist for misbehavior.

Armenia is being cornered and needs to demonstrate its resolve.
Fortunately, the Russian military brass made a vague statement
recently that it will come to the rescue of any ally which is
attacked.

Earlier, President Serge Sargisian’s office had announced that in case
of any military action by Azerbaijan, Yerevan will make a unilateral
decision by recognizing Karabagh’s independence and signing a mutual
defense treaty.

On December 10, Armenia’s government came out with a stronger stand.
Indeed, President Sargisian has announced that Armenia is ready to
fulfill its international obligations and approve the signed
Protocols. `We expect the same from the Turkish side,’ he added, `but
if Turkey continues to drag its feet, then Armenia may resort to the
international law and take necessary actions.’

If the state of the Cypriot and Kurdish issues can provide any hints
about the Turkish government’s intentions, then the Protocols will not
be approved by Ankara soon and nor should we hold our breaths for the
opening of the border.

Having said that, Armenia’s domestic situation does not support the
government’s resolve to stand up against international pressure and
Turkey’s power plays. Indeed, the Armenian National Congress has been
harping all along that Sargisian has been compromising on Karabagh to
obtain legitimacy. Now the ARF has joined the chorus calling for a
regime change right in the middle of these delicate negotiations.

If the Yerevan administration can withstand successfully all these
domestic and foreign pressures, then it deserves to survive.
Otherwise, God may help Armenia.