GlobalPost
December 7, 2009 Monday 11:13 AM EST

Erdogan and Obama: much to discuss

BYLINE: Nichole Sobecki

Dec. 7, 2009 (GlobalPost delivered by Newstex) —

ISTANBUL, Turkey ‘ Whether it’s a topic of discussion or not, Iran
will likely be the 300-pound gorilla in the room when Turkish Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan meets with U.S. President Barack Obama
at the White House on Monday.

The two leaders ‘ each renowned for his particular brand of straight
talk ‘ are seeking strengthened ties at a time when both have weighty
domestic and foreign agendas: for Erdogan, diplomatic engagement with
Armenia and Iraq and Kurdish rights; and for Obama, deepening U.S.
involvement in Afghanistan and ongoing concerns over Iran’s nuclear
program.

But the tenor of the meeting ‘ the first one-on-one between the two
leaders since Obamas historic visit to Turkey this past April ‘ is
expected to reflect growing unease among U.S. officials with Turkeys
recent foreign diplomacy shifts, according to foreign policy analysts.
For his part, Erdogan intends to tout his government’s foreign policy
activism and will be giving a series of speeches to Washington’s
foreign policy community.

Å`Im a bit afraid that Erdogan is going to go into this meeting
blindly, his shopping list of favors in hand, completely ignorant of
the impression ‘ right or wrong ‘ that his recent actions have been
giving many in the U.S., said Gareth Jenkins, a journalist, author and
analyst based in Turkey.

Erdogan’s coziness with Iran and Sudan, coupled with his harsh
criticism of Israel, are feeding claims that Turkey is neglecting its
tight U.S. alliance and abandoning the West in favor of a neo-Ottoman
dominion (NYSE :D) in the East. Erdogan may be in Washington this
week, but a month ago he was standing next to his Å`good friend Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad in Tehran and defending Iran’s nuclear program.

Erdogan will undoubtedly have a hard time explaining to Obama his
reluctance to back new sanctions against Iran. Claims of brotherhood
aside, Erdogan and Ahmadinejad are united in much more concrete terms
by the great energy game. Turkey is set to invest $3.5 billion in
Irans South Pars gas field, intended to ensure that Iran, as Turkeys
second biggest gas provider next to Russia, will have the ready supply
to meet Turkeys growing demand.

Å`The current government has a much more comfortable relationship with
all of its Middle Eastern allies; they are as comfortable meeting in
Tehran and Damascus as they are in Brussels and Washington, said Ian
Lesser, a Senior Transatlantic Fellow at the Washington-based German
Marshall Fund. Å`Iran, ultimately, will be the litmus test for
Turkish-US ties.

The Turks say they’re seeking to become what Turkish Foreign Minister
Ahmet Davutoglu calls a Å`partner to solve the region’s problems. But
other actions, such as Erdogans support of Sudan’s president, Omar
al-Bashir, claiming he couldn’t possibly be guilty of genocide in
Darfur because he’s a Å`good Muslim, have isolated many in Washington.
Right now there are Å`more points of disagreement than of agreement
between Washington and Ankara, said Philip Gordon, Obama’s point man
on Turkey at the State Department.

Among the biggest worries has been the souring of ties with Israel,
once Turkey’s close ally, over the military offensive in Gaza earlier
this year. Erdogans decision to bar Israel at the last minute from
taking part in NATO military exercises in Turkey this October has only
further disillusioned many Israelis over the future of this strategic
partnership.

But experts say that despite differences, Turkey remains an invaluable
U.S. ally as Washington confronts challenges in Afghanistan, Pakistan,
Iran and the Middle East.

"The American side does not seem to have the intention of rocking the
boat in relations with Turkey because Turkey is too important," said
Semih Idiz, a columnist for Milliyet newspaper.

The Incirlik airbase in southern Turkey is a supply hub for American
troops and equipment in Iraq and Afghanistan, and Turkey will likely
be a key transit route as U.S. forces are drawn down.

Eyes have also fallen on Turkey, which is NATO’s only Muslim member,
since Obama announced on Tuesday he was sending 30,000 more U.S.
soldiers to Afghanistan. Turkey currently has 1,750 soldiers on Afghan
soil, although their mandate is limited to strictly noncombat duties.
The Islamist-inspired Justice and Development Party dislikes being
asked to fight fellow Muslims and, while suggestions have been made
that Turkey will increase its troop presence, it will likely be only
for training and civilian-development duties.

U.S. ambassador to Turkey James Jeffrey said Obama and Erdogan would
discuss the issue, adding: "We’re expecting flexibility on the
definition of the mission Turkish troops will undertake. Every soldier
in Afghanistan is a combat force."

In the 40 days since Obama and Erdogan were first set to meet ‘ the
initial date of Oct. 29 was moved out of respect for Turkish Republic
Day ‘ the climate has changed from a time of waiting to a time for
action. From Obamas announcement of Americas new strategy in
Afghanistan to increasing pressure to apply sanctions on Iran, real
decisions are being made with global implications.

For the two leaders, this may mean that their meeting has become
significantly more difficult as they seek support from the other on
positions that they have spent 40 days moving farther apart.