WPS Agency, Russia
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
December 7, 2009 Monday

NEW THREATS OF A WAR FOR NAGORNO-KARABAKH

Yerevan and Baku take controversial steps for resolving of the conflict

WPS ANALYSIS; No. 135

Azerbaijan and Armenia continue the dialog aimed at resolving of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Last week, meeting of foreign ministers of
Armenia and Azerbaijan Eduard Nalbandian and Elmar Mammadyarov took
place in Athens during the meeting of the foreign ministers of OSCE
countries. This meeting was preceded by contacts of presidents of the
two countries Serzh Sargsian and Ilkham Aliyev in Munich on November
22. Co-chairs of the Minsk OSCE group positively evaluated these
negotiations that lasted for about four hours.

These negotiations in Munich became already the sixth meeting of the
two presidents this year. Earlier, meetings of presidents of Armenia
and Azerbaijan dedicated to Nagorno-Karabakh regulation took place on
October 8 in Chisinau, on July 17 in Moscow, on June 4 in St.
Petersburg, on May 7 in Prague and on January 28 in Davos. On October
2 and 3, co-chairs of the Minsk OSCE group visited Nagorno-Karabakh.
After that co-chair of the group from Russia Yury Merzlyakov announced
that the process of regulation was going on and Armenia and Azerbaijan
did not have very many unsettled issues left.

Experts point out that content of these negotiation is "by 80%
reflected" in the statement of the presidents of the co-chair
countries adopted in Aquila in July of 2009. President of Azerbaijan
Aliyev also disclosed some details of these negotiations recently. The
matter is about de-occupation of five districts around
Nagorno-Karabakh and removal of Armenian troops from Kelbadzharsky and
a part of Lachinsky districts in five years after that. In exchange
for this Azerbaijan gives up the use of force in resolving of the
conflict and agrees to grant a temporary status to Nagorno-Karabakh,
which actually means legalization of the regime that exists there.
After that the final status of Nagorno-Karabakh will be worked out on
the basis of consensus on the basis of voting the forms of which are
to be coordinated.

Along with this, despite the active attempts of international
structures to regulate the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh the situation
in the conflict zone remains bad. Thus, according to OSCE, not less
than 25 people died and more than 20 were wounded there in 2008.

The situation is also aggravated by belligerent statements of Baku. At
the end of November, Defense Minister of Azerbaijan Safar Abiev
announced at a meeting with his Polish colleague Bogdan Klich in Baku
that "co-chairs of the Minsk OSCE group cannot settle the issue for 15
years and there is no other way out except for regaining of
Nagorno-Karabakh by the military way." In response, Sargsian demanded
"to change the rhetoric and to forget about possible war in
Nagorno-Karabakh once and for all" because "Yerevan is ready to
provide assistance to Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and will provide the
harshest response."

In response to the words of Aliyev the parliament of Nagorno-Karabakh
released a special statement at the end of November in which it gave
itself a right to "react to the threats adequately." The parliament
emphasizes that periodic threats inspire thinking about the
Azerbaijani party as "an extremely unreliable participant of peaceful
negotiations on resolving of the conflict."

Is a new war for Nagorno-Karabakh possible? Experts do not rule out
such scenario, although they agree that it will hardly possible to
resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in such a way.

Vladimir Kazimirov, senior deputy chair of the association of Russian
diplomats who was the head of the Russian mission for regulation of
the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh between 992 and 1996, said that, "A
new war will throw development of Armenia and Azerbaijan to decades
back." According to him, not semi-guerilla forces but well armed
armies will clash in a new war. The war in Nagorno-Karabakh killed
almost 30,000 people in .5 years. The quantity of losses in a new war
will be much bigger.

Kazimirov says that approximate equality of forces rules out a
blitzkrieg and definite victory.

Thus, regulation of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh is important not
only for Baku and Yerevan but also for the entire international
community. For Russia it would be extremely not beneficial to
participate in possible settlement of a military conflict because the
parties of this conflict have built partnership relations with it.
Unleashing of a war for Nagorno-Karabakh will internationalize the
conflict. It is impossible to rule out that NATO countries may try to
act as peacekeepers.