AZERBAIJAN SHOULD NOT HOLD A DEFENSE GAME WITH US, IT SHOULD COUNTERATTACK

news.az
Dec 22 2009
Azerbaijan

Yuri Sigov News.Az interviews Yuri Sigov, political reviewer and
chief of the Business People magazine’s administration in Washington.

What can you say about the US aid to Nagorno Karabakh in 2010 financial
year? I would like to note that the information caused a stern reaction
in Baku as the White House has always stated support to the territorial
integrity of Azerbaijan and never recognized Nagorno Karabakh as an
independent formation.

I think the US administration has recently become more pragmatic in
settling a number of international issues and less oriented on some
of the earlier established political canons. As for Nagorno Karabakh,
the United States are interested in the resolution of this conflict,
but they do not do much for it as they have many other issues and as
no one is shooting at each other in the Caucasus (so far), Washington
does not pay a special attention to this region. Obama’s administration
does not intend to change its position on Nagorno Karabakh issue and
recognize it as an independent formation, while aid to Nagorno Karabakh
is considered a natural and normal event in the United States which
demonstrates US intention to play a more active role and contact all
conflict parties.

Will this step affect the Karabakh conflict settlement?

I do not think there is a direct connection between assistance to
Karabakh and the resolution of the conflict. Meanwhile, this step will
hardly improve basic trust in the region both to the US position as
an unengaged mediator and the trust between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Russia and Turkey could have taken the initiative in this situation
but, probably, this is not necessary or profitable for them right now.

What steps do you think Azerbaijan should take to improve the situation
when the United States sometimes put the interests of the Armenian
lobby above its own interests?

I want to say that it would be an exaggeration to think that the
Armenian lobby in the United States is strong and can do so that
its interests are above the interests of the United States and their
external policy. Certainly, the influence of the Armenian lobby in
Washington (especially, the Congress) is not small but Azerbaijan
also has something to attract US attention and to put pressure on
Washington, especially in such cases as "Nabucco" and "Caspian big
energy". There is also a Russian factor which can be used to remind to
Washington that Baku is important for their Caucasus interests. There
are also variants of a more active involvement (at least, the attempts)
of the international structures in regional affairs including the
Karabakh conflict. Anyway, Azerbaijan should not always play a defense
game, it can hold constructive counteractions.

Do you expect the soonest achievements in the Karabakh resolution
including in the light of the recent peacekeeping activeness of Turkey?

In this issue much will depend on the intention of the Turkish
leadership to use the Karabakh variant for their interests. Turks
will primarily play their own game and if they benefit from the more
active participation in the Karabakh conflict, they might take the
initiative. On the other hand, I do not see any grounds for Turkey to
take the initiative in Karabakh and fulfill the mediating functions in
which the United States, Russia and Europeans have failed. Meanwhile,
Turkey has a good chance to intensify positions in the Caucasus and
get certain levers in its relations with Azerbaijan especially in
the gas issue by means of building normal ties with Armenia. If it
comes to Nabucco, Turks can take the "lever to themselves" in the
resolution of the Karabakh conflict for their foreign policy goals
(including close cooperation with Europe).
From: Baghdasarian