AZERBAIJAN ON THE VERGE OF BANKRUPTCY
Karine Ter-Sahakyan

/PanARMENIAN.Net/
22.12.2009 GMT+04:00

In the oil issue Baku chose the line of least resistance: she played
on increasing demand, blackmailing the West, provoking and molding
the image of the enemy-Armenian, but finally she gained nothing.

Apparently, Azerbaijan became just another victim of the "Dutch
disease" peculiar to the countries, which rely only on oil exports
and in no way think about what results the whole situation might have.

According to Baku media outlets, compared with the corresponding
period in 2008, exports of oil in 2009 have decreased by 2,9 times,
and its cost by 4 times. In January-November of the current year,
Azerbaijan exported 25 575 334.6 tons of crude oil for the price of $10
700 483.9. The crude oil was exported by the Marketing and Economic
Operations Office of the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic
(SOCAR).

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Out of it, 2 344 730 tons was transported through the
Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline, 3 856 983.5 tons through the Baku-Supsa oil
pipeline, 31 951 468.9 tons through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline,
and still 1 284 657.7 tons was transported by rail. In total, as
reported by Xronika.az, for the period of January – November 2009
Azerbaijan’s foreign trade fell by 2.9 times. Exports fell by 3.57
times, while imports by 18.35%.

Crude oil and petroleum products accounted for 91.63% of the
Azerbaijani exports in January-November of this year, against 96.94%
of the same period in 2008. The share of crude oil in total exports of
Azerbaijan during the accounting period amounted to 81.28% (against
92.76% of January-November 2008), that of oil products – 10,35%
(against 4.18%). The amount of oil exports fell by 75.44% as compared
with January-November 2008, amounting to more than 25.575 million tons.

It is natural that Azerbaijan, whose lion’s share of the budget is
formed by the export of petroleum products, was forced to cut its
budget expenditures for 2010 by 17%. Moreover, half of the means it had
to levy from the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan, where the oil export
windfalls had been accumulated, and it was assumed that after the
oil boom in Azerbaijan, funds from the State Oil Fund would smooth up
the difference in the income fall of the state. However, more than $
6 billion will be withdrawn from the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan as
early as 2010.

Against these trends, the national debt of Azerbaijan increased by 11%
, oil refining fell by 18.4%, market of building materials collapsed
by 60%. Negative trends have intensified in the social sphere too;
more than 1.2 million Azeris live in poverty, and social spending
for the budget of 2010 has been reduced.

In fact, Ilham Aliyev’s Khanate is on the verge of collapse and
his bellicose statements are actually made to distract people from
pressing problems. This method is pretty old and not always works in
the direction advantageous for the authorities. Be that as it may,
in the oil issue Baku chose the line of least resistance: she played
on increasing demand, blackmailing the West, provoking and molding the
image of the enemy-Armenian, but finally she gained nothing. And then
there was the crisis, which, as asserted by the President’s cronies,
has bypassed Azerbaijan…

Possession of energy resources and the inability to dispose of them
is the fate of the politicians, who rely on anything but reason. But
Azerbaijan could in fact be transformed into a prosperous country
in the region, be there a desire and appropriate skills. But because
there is neither, there remains only one thing – to shift the blame
on the Armenians, who hamper Azeris in everything: starting with
the history and ending with the skills to manage the wealth fallen
from heaven. But, of course, the most ridiculous thing against
this background is the statement of state officials, who claim
that the right of nations to self-determination does not apply to
Nagorno-Karabakh. After such statements not even a sudden increase
of oil exports or the sudden fulfillment of its dream to participate
in the Nabucco project can save Azerbaijan.