ARMENIA SHOULD REALIZE CSTO IS NOT PANACEA FROM ALL PROBLEMS WITH NEIGHBORS

news.az
Dec 25 2009
Azerbaijan

The recent often statements of the Armenian side about the
unconditional protection of the Collective Security Treaty Organization
from all possible actions in Nagorno-Karabakh have caused, at least,
surprise.

Under the union contract with the Collective Security Treaty
Organization, in case of military actions against Armenia, the
Collective Security Treaty Organization is obliged to render military
assistance to Yerevan, Armenian Defense Minister Seyran Ohanian told
Yerevan’s "Azg" newspaper.

"This is the answer to the question whether the CSTO will help us
or not in the war with Azerbaijan, because we are members of this
organization as opposed to Azerbaijan," the minister said.

Nobody would argue that in case of an act of aggression against
Armenia, which is the CSTO member-country, the CSTO has the right to
render the necessary assistance, including military one under the right
to collective defense in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter .

However, it seems, the Armenian side misses one important point: the
military operations do not envisage Azerbaijan’s attack on Armenia
because Nagorno-Karabakh is not Armenia, but de jure territory
belonging to Azerbaijan. This fact can not be interpreted to meet
one’s interests, because there is no country in the world that would
recognize the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh and call the territorial
integrity of Azerbaijan in question.

Yerevan must understand that the entry of Armenia to the Organization
of Collective Security Treaty does not guarantee that members of the
organization will assist Yerevan in case of a military invasion of
Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh. Legally, the CSTO is not simply
entitled to do it, because Nagorno-Karabakh is a part of Azerbaijan.

It does not belong to any of the CSTO member countries. But Baku
is not going to announce the war to a member of the CSTO – Armenia,
for which the rest of the CSTO member-countries could protect.

Armenia took upon themselves obligations to protect Nagorno-Karabakh.

But up until today they have no received any international recognition
of independence. Indirectly the organization itself has attempted to
clarify this issue.

First, the Armenians should think that the CSTO has already rejected
the intention of its participation even in a peacekeeping operation
in the Karabakh conflict zone.

The CSTO stressed that the Nagorno-Karabakh is Azerbaijan’s territory.

"Azerbaijan is not included in the Collective Security Treaty
Organization. We can not enter our troops in Azerbaijan’s territory
without its consent. Our charter clearly stressed that the CSTO
has no right to conduct any military operations in one country’s
territory which is not the CSTO member without its consent", the CSTO
press-service said in July 2009.

If Yerevan hopes for the CSTO’s interference on the scenario of
events in Tskhinvali in 2008, when Russia entered its troops into the
territory of Georgia, a big question will occur. Is it possible to
compare the relations between Tbilisi and Moscow in August 2008 with
the relations between Baku and six CSTO member-states, except Armenia?

If Armenia, on behalf of the Nagorno Karabakh, applies to the
Collective Security Treaty Organization with a request on interference,
the CSTO member-countries are unlikely to ignore friendly relations
with Azerbaijan. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Belarus and
Uzbekistan are countries that traditionally consider Azerbaijan the
main partner and ally in the South Caucasus.

As to Armenia’s main hope – Russia, the alarming bell for Yerevan was
that after Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s statement in November
2009 about the possibility to solve the long-standing territorial
dispute militarily, there was no official comment from Russia.

One should think whether the scenario of the Armenian-Azerbaijani war
of early 1990 can repeat, and whether the influence of Russia in this
war will be decisive now. Probably, no! If Armenia does not ignore
many signals to establish a warm partnership and strategic relationship
between Russia and Azerbaijan, it will not cherish false hopes.

With regard to bilateral agreements between Russia and Armenia,
Russia’s border guards are obliged to protect only the external borders
of Armenia, that is, the borders of Armenia within the former Soviet
Union with Turkey and Iran.

In such a situation, it is impossible to expect for Russian military
men to deploy on the border with Azerbaijan, even if there is a threat
of further aggression against Armenia.

Armenia’s final hopes for the CSTO was that the Russian President,
as commander-in-chief, is entitled to personally decide where to
enter its troops under the new amendments to the law "Defense".

President Dmitry Medvedev became the initiator of the amendments.

Russia’s legislators gave him these powers.

Taking into account all the above-mentioned, Armenia should not rely
on the CSTO’s and Russia’s help in case of military operations in
Nagorno-Karabakh.

Armenia should search for diplomatic compromises in resolving the
problems with its neighbors.