Journal of Turkish Weekly
Dec 27 2009
Turkish-Armenian Rapprochement and Disagreements with Azerbaijan: A
View from Baku
Rovshan Ibrahimov
Editor of USAK Energy Review
Sunday, 27 December 2009
The year 2009 will be remembered as a year of disagreements and
misunderstandings on a number of issues between Azerbaijan and Turkey.
It is a very significant event; a few years ago nobody could imagine
that between these two countries there could be differences on any
issue.
The harbinger of disagreement between the two countries was the
unofficial visit of Turkish President Gul to Yerevan for the match
between the teams of the two countries in 2008. After that, the two
countries began to rapidly develop relations, namely, Turkey
unilaterally expressed a determination to open the Turkish-Armenian
border, closed since March 1993, after Armenian troops occupied
Kelbajar, by an Azerbaijani district. Thus far, Ankara has stated that
before the liberation of occupied Azerbaijani territories, Turkey will
not open the border.
However, Turkey’s foreign policy began to change. Adopting a course of
becoming a regional power, Turkey has decided to mend relations with
its neighbors. To improve relations with Armenia, it has elected the
formula: "from zero relationship to zero problems." The main issues
that Turkey wishes to solve with regard to Armenia, is the Armenian
position in relation to "the events of 1915" in the Ottoman Empire,
which they consider the genocide of their people, and the territorial
claims of Armenia towards Turkey.
Turkey believes that in the case of open borders, rapid relations will
develop between the two countries, including economic ones. Over time,
close relations with Armenia are to force that country to reconsider
its demands in relation to Turkey.
This position of Turkey has been badly received in Azerbaijan. In
anticipation, by April 24, the date which is considered a day of
remembrance of victims in 1915, it is assumed that Turkey will open
its borders with Armenia. For this reason, the reaction in Azerbaijan
has been very sharp. It could not help but be noticed in the official
capital Ankara. After that, the prime-minister of Turkey, Recep Tayyip
Erdogan visited Baku. He assured Azerbaijan that without progress on
the issue of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Turkey will not open its
borders with Armenia. The same assurance was made by the Turkish
president, Abdullah Gul.
In September 2009, it became known that between Turkey and Armenia,
they were expected to sign two protocols, according to which,
diplomatic relations should be established between the two countries
and borders would be opened between them. Trusting the statements made
by Turkish officials, the reaction in Azerbaijan has been restrained.
However, the surge of controversy erupted again during the re-match
between Turkey and Armenia in Bursa. At that time, the Azerbaijani
flag was barred from the stadium. Flags gathered at the entrance to
the stadium. On Azerbaijani TV channels, images were shown where Azeri
flags were thrown in a box, which had an image, similar to the toilet.
The reaction in Azerbaijan was acute. In response, in Baku, at the
Martyrs’ Alley, where Turkish soldiers rest who gave their lives for
the liberation of Baku in 1918, Turkish flags were lowered.
The scandal was settled only after the Baku visit of the Minister of
Foreign Affairs of Turkey, Ahmet Davutoglu, and delegations of
deputies in both countries. In Turkey, the culprits who negligently
treated the flag of Azerbaijan,were punished.
On October 10, 2009, the protocol was signed in Zurich by the Foreign
Ministers of Turkey and Armenia, establishing diplomatic relations
between the two countries and creating the possibility of the future
border opening. Both protocols will enter into force two months after
ratification by the legislatures of both states. However, both
parliaments have not ratified the protocols yet. Turkey argues that
the ratification may be possible if in the first stage, Armenia will
release five districts adjacent to the Nagorno-Karabakh districts,
also occupied by Armenia.
In turn, Armenia reacted negatively to the demands of Turkey,
explaining that these conditions shouldn’t be referred to as
requirements. In addition, Armenia believes that the borders were
closed unilaterally, and therefore, Turkey must open them without
additional requirements.
Azerbaijan has shown restraint in relation to the signing of the
protocols, fully trusting in the words, the data from the highest
representatives of the authorities in Turkey. At the moment, there are
no serious disagreements between Azerbaijan and Turkey.
On December 9, 2009, the Turkish Prime Minister visited the United
States. During the meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama, the talks
turned to the topic of the situation around Nagorno-Karabakh. Prime
Minister Erdogan appealed to President Obama so that the U.S. would
intervene in the situation around Karabakh. Turkey wants the release
of the five occupied areas before the opening of the border with
Armenia.
It is worth examining the reasons for disagreement between Azerbaijan
and Turkey’s policy in the region. It’s no secret that for Turkey, it
was unexpected. The reasons for this were several. First and foremost,
Azerbaijan believes that the process of rapprochement between Turkey
and Armenia should be taking into account the Nagorno-Karabakh
process. Since 1993, the condition for opening the border was
liberating territories. In 2008, this situation has somewhat changed.
That is why in April 2008, in different layers of society in
Azerbaijan, there were protests against possible action by Turkey. In
Baku, it is believed that public outcry stopped Turkey in April, that
it was ready to open the border. This was followed by Erdogan’s pledge
not to open the border until there is progress in the Karabakh issue.
The second misunderstanding between the parties was held on the thesis
of Turkey, that Azerbaijan has no clear policy in the settlement of
the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, and that is why Turkey is taking steps
to change the status quo in the region. In turn, the Azerbaijani side
expressed the view that the proposal is based on the fact that Turkey
itself is not clearly represented on the situation around
Nagorno-Karabakh and the region as a whole.
Azerbaijan has repeatedly tried to change the situation in a military
way, until 1994, as by negotiation. In 1999, some agreement could have
been reached. However, the terrorist act in the Armenian parliament
stopped the process; key actors were shot. It became clear that the
only pressure on Armenia to solve the problem of Karabakh was
impossible. The third party countries, primarily Russia, are
interested in the Karabakh problem. This country does not want
conflict resolution in favor of one party or another. Russia tries to
maintain the current state of affairs, thus able to pressure both
Azerbaijan and Armenia. That is why Azerbaijan is unable to resolve
the conflict in its favor at the moment. Therefore, Azerbaijan has
chosen a tactic of economic weakening for Armenia, namely the
maintenance of the embargo against the country and the implementation
of regional projects, in which Armenia would not be permitted. It was
such with the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas
pipeline. The next project on the stage is the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars.
However, the possible opening of borders with Turkey would lead to the
fact that the economic pressure on Armenia by Azerbaijan would be
weakened.
In addition, is Azerbaijan skeptical considering the possibility of
improving relations between Turkey and Armenia in the case of opening
borders? The reason is that Armenia is heavily dependent on Russia, as
well as from its Diaspora, and they determine the strategy of its
foreign policy.
Recent events show that to understand in Turkey, to change relations
with Armenia, as well as make progress in the Karabakh problem, it is
necessary to negotiate with Russia. That is why at the meeting with
Obama, Erdogan insisted on the active U.S. action against Russia and
Armenia. Time will tell if that lies in the best interests of the
United States. However, we can see that if there is no progress in the
Karabakh problem, the protocols signed between Turkey and Armenia will
not be ratified.
Sunday, 27 December 2009
"Statements of facts or opinions appearing in the pages of Journal of
Turkish Weekly (JTW) are not necessarily by the editors of JTW nor do
they necessarily reflect the opinions of JTW or ISRO. The opinions
published here are held by the authors themselves and not necessarily
those of JTW or ISRO.
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