Sunday’s Zaman, Turkey
Dec 27 2009
Win some, lose some; Turkey looks forward to 2010
The Turkish government unveiled bold initiatives in 2009 in a bid to
solve the decades-long problems of the country on the domestic front
but has failed to finalize any of them by year’s end amid mounting
opposition in Parliament and growing skepticism among the people.
Added to that, government blunders in communicating these initiatives
in effective and well-thought-out public diplomacy has weakened the
government’s hand. The government received high marks, however, on the
management of Turkey’s external relations and deserved credit for
keeping the economy afloat without a financial bailout.
`The government has undertaken too many battles at the same time
in 2009 in a bid to solve the decades-long problems of the country
while having failed to communicate all these initiatives to the public
in a convincing manner,’ says a professor who manages a public survey
firm in Ankara.
Professor Ã-zer Sencar, the owner of the Ankara-based MetroPOLL
Strategic and Social Research Center, says the ruling Justice and
Development Party (AK Party) government is running out of time as the
national elections are coming up in 2011, if not earlier. `Most of the
issues the government is trying to tackle were left for next year, and
they [AK Party officials] do not seem to have clear strategies for
addressing the mounting grievances and increasing concerns of the
people,’ he told Sunday’s Zaman.
Indeed Sencar’s point is well placed and points to the state of the
country, which is looking more like an unfinished patchwork quilt.
During the summer of 2009, the government unveiled the democratization
initiative to solve the long-running Kurdish problem, only to be
revised later to incorporate the problems of other groups, including
religious minorities. The goal was to expand freedoms and democratic
rights for all in Turkey, making sure that the rights of minorities
are well protected.
With the obstacles facing the political process and democratic
engagement to be eventually removed, the government calculated that
the armed Kurdish terrorist group the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)
would lay down its arms. Well, it did not work out quite as well as
the government had hoped. The opposition parties dragged their feet
and committed themselves to staunchly opposing the government
initiative. Constitutional changes remained out of the question
without the support of the opposition.
The polarized Parliament did not allow any new reform laws to be
passed in 2009 with the exception of the one hastily passed at a
midnight session in June to allow civilian courts to try military
officers for certain offenses. Amid mounting opposition both from
within Parliament and also from countries such as France and Germany,
which are opposed to Turkey’s European Union bid, the government has
lost much of its enthusiasm for EU negotiations. The prospect of an
accelerated reform process next year looks dim as the opposition
parties signal that they will dig in their heels further.
Tough road ahead for undertaking reforms
The closure of the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP) by the
Constitutional Court added woes to the already tense process of the
democratization initiative, which was marred by street clashes and
violent demonstrations in predominantly Kurdish cities in the
Southeast. The party was soon replaced by the Peace and Democracy
Party (BDP). Nonetheless, the government vowed to keep moving forward
with the initiative no matter what happened.
The chairman of the AK Party’s parliamentary group, Suat Kılıç, told
Sunday’s Zaman the government was more than determined to continue
with the initiative. `We are taking our steps for democratization for
the nation, not for the opposition or the terrorist organization
[PKK]. The only other party in this process is the nation. Our people
want these steps to be taken,’ he said.
In addition to the Kurdish initiative, the government is trying to the
address problems and demands of the Alevis and Roma. The government
completed the sixth round of workshops with leading Alevi leaders in
order to identify problem areas and reconcile different factions of
the Alevi community. Alevi workshop coordinator Necdet SubaÅ?ı told
Sunday’s Zaman that the Alevi initiative has gone through a very good
preparation process and said the political will is there to back up
the process. `The package to solve Alevi problems may reach the
Turkish Parliament sooner rather than later,’ he said.
Another issue to be left until 2010 is the ongoing trial of Ergenekon,
a clandestine criminal organization charged with plotting to overthrow
the democratically elected government of Turkey. The case is very
complex and involves many people from the military, bureaucracy,
academia, business world and media. As prosecutors dig deeper, they
discover more and more plots aimed to wreak havoc on the country by
masterminding killing sprees, including high-profile minority leaders
and political figures. Turkey is likely to see more evidence
uncovering vicious plans intended to destroy democratic institutions
in the country next year.
Gov’t fares better on foreign relations
On foreign relations, the government seemed to have fared much better
in contrast to domestic issues. Mardin deputy Cüneyt Yüksel from the
AK Party, currently serving as the vice president of his party’s
political and legal affairs commission, told Sunday’s Zaman that the
pro-active engagement of Turkish foreign policy has started producing
positive results for the country already. `The old doctrine of `wait
and see’ vis-Ã-vis Turkey’s neighbors was replaced with a `complete
integration’ policy aimed at creating enhanced economic ties with
countries,’ he said, adding that the momentum will pick up speed in
2010.
He also said the domestic issues are sometimes connected with external
ones as well. `Look at the democratization initiative. The external
conditions for a solution to the terrorism problem in Turkey are very
ripe at the moment. Both the Iraqi central government and the Kurdish
administration in northern Iraq are working in tandem to eliminate the
PKK problem, and the US is throwing its full support behind the
breakup of the terror network,’ Yüksel explained.
Yüksel, who accompanied Prime Minister Recep Tayyip ErdoÄ?an on his
visit to Washington earlier this month, said foreign relations
priorities between the United States and Turkey have converged on a
number of issues. In the historic meeting between ErdoÄ?an and US
President Barack Obama, both leaders reaffirmed a mutual determination
to flesh out the `model partnership’ declared between Ankara and
Washington. Though both countries disagreed over Iran’s nuclear
program and Turkey’s unwillingness to change the parameters of its
mission in Afghanistan, the US administration has clearly voiced its
appreciation of the role played by Turkey in contributing to the
maintenance of global peace.
`And given Turkey’s history as a secular democratic state that
respects the rule of law, but is also a majority Muslim nation, it
plays a critical role, I think, in helping to shape mutual
understanding and stability and peace not only in its neighborhood but
around the world,’ Obama said at a joint press conference following
the talks. Thus 2010 will be a year during which the Turkish public
will see what this `model partnership’ entails and what kind of
results it will generate.
Regarding the rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia, Turkey is
still waiting to see some kind of movement in the resolution of the
Nagorno-Karabakh issue before moving to ratify the two protocols
signed by both governments on restoring diplomatic ties and reopening
the common border between the two neighboring countries.
Cyprus will occupy a central place in Turkish foreign policy next year
because Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat faces a possible
ousting by a hard-line opponent in the April election. Unless there is
a settlement by that time, talks aimed at reunifying the divided
island will likely break down. Cyprus was split in 1974 when Turkey
militarily intervened after a coup by supporters of unification with
Greece. The island joined the EU in 2004, but only Greek Cypriots
enjoy the benefits.
Economy will pick up speed
Although the Turkish economy was battered throughout 2009 due to the
global economic crisis, it was in much a better position compared to
other countries in Central and Eastern Europe. The economy is well on
its way to recovery. International credit rating agency Fitch Ratings
has upgraded Turkey’s sovereign rating two notches from `BB-‘ to
`BB+,’ reflecting Turkey’s relative resilience to the severe stress
test of the global financial crisis and some easing of previously
acute constraints related to inflation, external finances and
political risk.
Turkey was able to avert a balance of payments, or financial, crisis
during 2009 even without help from the International Monetary Fund
(IMF). There has been no significant capital flight from the country.
Interest rates have fallen to single digits for the first time in its
modern history, to 5.1 percent, from an average of 10.4 percent in
2008. The current account deficit (CAD) was down to comfortable
levels.
Still, many argue for cautious optimism for the next year. The central
government’s budget deficit will widen, reflecting the need to pump
more money into the market, while revenue is falling. The Turkish
government unveiled stimulus packages in 2009 to revive the ailing
economy through expansionary fiscal policies. It targets curbing
expenses to a degree in the 2010 budget to reduce the country’s risk
premium, but the approaching election in 2011 may force government to
flex its fiscal and budgetary discipline.
27 December 2009, Sunday
ABDULLAH BOZKURT ANKARA