A YEAR OF PRESIDENT FOR LIFE AND BIRD POOP
Matthew Collin

Moscow Times
Dec 28 2009
Russia

In the South Caucasus, another uncertain new year beckons. Although
2009 wasn’t scarred by another senseless war, it wasn’t a year to
confound the pessimists either.

One of the region’s few stories in 2009 that made international
headlines was widely assessed as positive: the potential rapprochement
of old foes Armenia and Turkey after decades of enmity caused by the
mass killings of Armenians in the early 20th century.

But while Armenians argued among themselves about whether establishing
diplomatic relations and opening their border with Turkey was such a
good idea, their neighbors in Azerbaijan appeared to be completely
relaxed about offering their strongman leader, Ilham Aliyev,
the opportunity to become president for life. Unsurprisingly,
the referendum on the issue gave Aliyev the right to choose how
many times he will run for president. Not long afterward, in the
authorities’ latest move against independent media in the country,
two young activists who had been using the Internet to build support
for pro-democracy movements were imprisoned for "hooliganism" after
a highly dubious trial.

The energy-rich Azeri regime appeared to be genuinely bemused by the
widespread global condemnation of the prosecution and the subsequent
glorification of the jailed activists as noble champions of free
speech. And somehow, Tony Blair, the former British prime minister
and a self-appointed "democracy promoter," omitted the mention
of the country’s civil rights violations when he made a speech in
Azerbaijan — reportedly for a $100,000 honorarium — on behalf of
a chemical company.

In Georgia, the opposition staged an all-out attempt to oust President
Mikheil Saakashvili, blockading the parliament and his flashy new
presidential palace for several months with imitation prison cells.

But the opposition leaders simply couldn’t convince the politically
exhausted Georgian people to join them on the streets in large
numbers. The opposition’s challenge ended in debilitating failure.

After Saakashvili deftly outplayed them with a hands-off approach,
their protests simply shriveled up.

Nevertheless, despite seeing off his challengers at home, it wasn’t
exactly a triumphant year for Saakashvili. Russian troops remained at
their positions within swift striking distance of Tbilisi, in violation
of a cease-fire agreement that ended the Georgia-Russia war in 2008,
while a European Union-commissioned investigation accused both the
Saakashvili government and the Kremlin of violating international
law during the conflict. Meanwhile, a report from Transparency
International suggested that the media in Georgia is now less free than
before the Rose Revolution that swept Saakashvili to power, despite six
years of what the government has hailed as "democratic transformation."

In the Caucasus, truth is often stranger than fiction. Nauru, a
minuscule Pacific island, became the fourth country to recognize
the Russian-sponsored rebel regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia
as independent states. Nauru once made money by selling phosphates
derived from guano, the bird excrement that coats its 21 square
kilometers of territory. But when that resource ran out, destitution
beckoned. The Nauruan regime reportedly decided to recognize the two
Caucasus enclaves after demanding $50 million of aid from Moscow. It
was described as "guano diplomacy," but in a region characterized
by opaque maneuvering and conspiracy theories, this time at least,
everyone’s motives were clear.