IRAN: YEAR IN REVIEW
Sevak Sarukhanyan
"Noravank" Foundation
28 December 2009
2009 can be regarded as one of the most important years in the
post-revolution history of Iran. The crisis in domestic policy, the
procrastination of the possible settlement of the Iranian-American
relations in the sphere of foreign policy, the maintenance and
consolidation of their stance in regard to nuclear issue which can
latter influence seriously the situation in Iran and its status. In
this article we speak about the developments in 2009 which, in our
opinion, were important for Iran.
Political crisis and the formation of the new opposition The
presidential elections marked the beginning of the gravest political
crisis in Iran since the Islamic revolution. The clashes between
opposition and security forces, casualties, the subsequent arrests,
finally brought to the formation of the new political field around
M.H.Mousavi which will pass the important stage of institutionalism in
the coming years. The continuing clashes between the demonstrators and
police can be of permanent character, because they serve from political
and moral points of view the movement headed by A.A.Hashemi-Rafsanjani,
M.H.Mousavi, M.Khatami and other hundreds of former and present
high-ranked figures which long-term objective is the removal of the
conservatives from the power.
As the main internal impulse the possible election of the new
spiritual leader of Iran can be mentioned and as a foreign one – the
possible strike on Iran by the US and Israel. Let us mention that the
possibility of the second variant is rising gradually today, taking
into consideration the fact that Tehran wrecks the talks with IAEA
and the "six". If one or two years ago it was difficult to say that
the US or Israeli air strike could cause the instability in domestic
political situation or revolution then, after the recent presidential
elections when the strong opposition was formed both in political
and spiritual circles, one can speak about such a possibility.
Iran-USA relations In 2009 it became finally clear that there would
be no significant changes in the relations between Iran and the new
US administration after the resignation of G.W. Bush. Though the
policy of the former US administration was obviously anti-Iranian,
it expressed the natural interests of the US, i.e. the establishment
of the control in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf. Today Tehran,
which rights and positions are not less valid than those of Washington,
also aspires to establish the control in the same region. Under such
conditions one cannot speak about rectification of the relations
between Iran and the US despite the fact who is the president of the
United States or Iran.
During the clashes in the streets of Tehran some media in the US
raised a question whether Obama should improve the relations with
that government. Negative answer to this question amid anti-Iranian
propaganda was obvious. But it should be mentioned that before the
presidential elections in Iran, before the clashes and casualties
there were no essential steps made by the Obama administration to
settle the relations with Iran. As a result, in May, during one of
the Sabbaticals the spiritual leader of Iran A. Khamenei said about
the policy of Obama: "One should judge about a person not by his
appearance or words but by his intentions and deeds. The later does
not differ from the ones there were before".
The Iranian-American confrontation will continue within next years and
the field of the restricted collaboration and the mutual clarifying
of the stances between two states will remain the same as it has been
in the recent years, i.e. Iraq and Afghanistan. Most probably the
parties will have to negotiate and partially cooperate in the processes
regarding Pakistan which are important both for Iran and the US.
Iran-Turkey relations 2009 has also been important from the point
of view of the development and setting more profound relations with
Turkey. The declarative relations between Tehran and Ankara which
were two years ago, this year have materialized. In January 2009
Turkish prime-minister R.T.
Erdogan stated in Brussels that it made no sense to speak about Nabucco
gas pipeline without Iran’s participation to the project. Iran is
of great importance for Turkey which aspires to become the biggest
energy transportation junction in the region. That state has huge gas
reserves, in future it will become the main gas supplier to Europe,
and the access to Central Asia through that country is much safer
than through Georgia and Azerbaijan. For Iran Turkey, in its turn,
is important because the most important rout of the Iranian gas to the
EU market goes through its territory, Turkey is an important regional
actor for whom the further destabilization of the situation in the
region and creation of independent Kurdistan are disadvantageous.
Consequently, Turkish-Iranian relations in 2009 entered into the
new stage which can be regarded as strategic partnership, and
the visit of Turkey’s prime-minister to Iran can be regarded as
historical. During the later Iran and Turkey came to an agreement
about the joint development of "South Pars" gas field, building of
the gas pipelines and roads, import of the Turkish engineering goods
to Iran, export of Iranian gas to Turkey. Besides, the parties agreed
to trade only by Iranian rial and Turkish lira, refusing from the US
dollar1, and to make steps to create industrial offshore zone near
the Turkish-Iranian border, probably in the district of Igdir 2.
Besides, Turkey undertook to buy from Iran 35 billion m3 of natural
gas from 2011 which would allow Ankara to provide the functioning of
Nabucco without Azerbaijan and Central Asian countries3.
Nuclear issue In 2009 Iran made the most important step in negotiations
round the nuclear weapon issue, i.e. in November Iran "officially and
finally" refused to cease the works on uranium enrichment, which, of
course, would bring the negotiations with the "six" to a dead-lock and
the ways to escape it must be found rather quickly. This is conditioned
by president M. Ahmadinejad’s statement that Iran is going to build
new uranium enrichment plants which may worsen the situation.
In Israel the adherents of striking the Iranian nuclear infrastructure
stepped up their activity, their voices become louder and more
acceptable for society and various circles of political forces. Of
course, one cannot exclude that M. Ahmadinejad continues the classical
Iranian policy of "hold talks as long as you can", and his aim is to
gain much more from international community instead of dismissing
uranium enrichment, but at the same time Tehran is approaching the
line on the other side of which the creation of the nuclear weapon is
seen. The coming year will be rather important for Iranian nuclear
programme. It is not excluded that the events for Iran may develop
in unfavorable scenario.
Economic policy In 2009 Iran managed to overcome in general the
consequences of the global economic crisis. Though there are still
many problems in the country. Trying to avoid the serious economic
crisis in the country the Iranian authorities initiated the refunding
of the national banks demanding from them to extend terms of credit
repayments to physical bodies and legal entities and to continue to
provide low-rate credits.
As a consequence, according to data for October 2009 the sum of the
outstanding credits has been $38 billion and this may cause serious
problems in the future.
At the same time, in 2009 the important process of banks
nationalization has been initiated in Iran and this process, just
from economic point of view, purposes to increase the capitalization
of the banks, their competitiveness and effectiveness of management.
Particularly, 5% of Mellat, Tejarat and Saderat shares, which are now
in circulation on Tehran stock market, has been put up for sale. By
March 2010 other 8% will have been put up for sale. Let us mention
that main shareholder become the companies and persons, directly
connected Iranian political and spiritual elite.
But from the prospective point of view the important event for Iran
was the opening of the Iranian oil market on the Kirsh Island on
October 19 which preparatory works had been carried out for several
recent years. Though the trading on that market is rather small but
Chinese and Indian companies has already expressed the wish from 2010
to buy Iranian oil on Iranian oil market using euro and Iranian rial.
It is not clear yet how the functioning of the new oil market will
influence global economy but the beginning of its functioning at least
from informational point of view impacts the US positions which NYSE
is the world leader in oil trading and provides to some extent the
dominance of the US dollar.
1The same joint decision was made by Turkey and China.
2According to the Minister of Industry of Turkey N. Ergun Syria and
Armenia can also join that zone.
3At the same time in November Turkish government allowed Swiss EGL
(Elektrizitats-Gesellschaft Laufenburg) Company to export gas from
Iran to Europe using its territory.