YEARENDER: U.S., RUSSIA VYING FOR BIGGER SWAY IN SOUTH CAUCASUS

Xinhua News Agency
December 27, 2009 Sunday 6:40 AM EST
China

The South Caucasus, a strategically important area and a key route
for energy supplies from the oil and gas-rich Caspian Sea to Europe,
has been the site of tougher rivalry between Washington and Moscow
in the past year.

Moves of the three Caucasus nations, include Georgia’s withdrawal
from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), a U.S.-Georgia
partnership deal and a landmark fence-mending accord between Armenia
and Turkey, also fueled the race for greater influence in the region.

STRATEGIC INTERESTS

Washington has long been trying to squeeze out Russian influence in
the Caucasus nations of Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia — all former
Soviet republics — while Russia views the region as a "buffer zone"
for NATO eastward expansion and sees the region as having a direct
bearing on its efforts to maintain stability in its troubled North
Caucasus.

Meanwhile, the United States is using their strategic location to
increase pressure on Iran and assist its operations in Afghanistan. It
is also eyeing the region’s abundant oil and gas reserves, which
could help it reduce its dependence on energy from the Persian Gulf.

Oil-rich Azerbaijan has played a central role in regional energy
projects. One of the projects, the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline,
which runs through Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey, is viewed by the
West as an important move to break Russia’s monopoly on oil and gas
exports to Western Europe.

Washington has gained access to Baku airport for fueling stops by U.S.

military aircraft and Azerbaijan’s airspace for overflights during
its war in Afghanistan.

Moscow, meanwhile, is also forging closer ties with Azerbaijan.

Earlier this year, Russia sought to extend a lease agreement with
Azerbaijan for the Gabala radar station and has also strengthened
energy cooperation with the country.

WEST-LEANING GEORGIA

Russia and Georgia fought a brief war in August 2008 when Tbilisi tried
to retake South Ossetia, which, together with Abkhazia, broke away from
central rule in the 1990s following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Tensions escalated when Moscow recognized South Ossetia and Abkhazia
as independent states two weeks after the conflict ended. Georgia
severed ties with Russia in September 2008 and quit the CIS this year.

Shortly after the war, Washington announced a 1-billion-U.S. dollar
economic aid package for Tbilisi to help with its war relief.

During his visit to Georgia in July, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden
described the country as an "important strategic partner" and said
Washington will not sacrifice Georgian interests to mend its ties
with Moscow.

Biden said the United States would continue to offer comprehensive
support to the Caucasus country, including its entry into NATO.

Russia’s position on the issue has been vastly different. Prime
Minister Vladimir Putin said in August that Russia intends to continue
giving "total political and economic support to both South Ossetia
and Abkhazia."

"Russia will not permit any reprisal attempts or any repeat of military
ventures in this region," he said.

ARMENIA, TURKEY MENDING FENCE

In October this year, Armenia and Turkey signed a historic deal on
normalizing ties and reopening their borders. Observers said the
United States has played a crucial role in bringing them together.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton helped mediate the deal when
signing of the accord was delayed more than three hours by last-minute
disagreement between the two countries over the wording of a statement.

Turkey and Armenia have been bogged down over a century-old row over
the killing of 1.5 million Armenians in the final days of the Ottoman
Empire at the end of World War I. Turkey denies Armenia’s charge of
a genocide.

And Turkey has sided with Azerbaijan in its territorial dispute with
Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. In 1993, Turkey closed its
borders with Armenia in a gesture of support for Azerbaijan.

Analysts noted that reconciliation between the two long-time rivals
will help Washington’s strategies for Iran and Afghanistan and ensure
the safe supply of Caspian energy.

Meanwhile, thawing ties between Armenia and Turkey will make
it difficult for Russia to justify its military base in Armenia
as the base was allegedly intended to maintain stability on the
Armenian-Turkish borders.

Yet, Russia still maintains close ties with Armenia both bilaterally
and within the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a post-Soviet
security bloc which consists of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.

Analysts noted that substantial improvement of ties between Armenia
and Turkey seems likely in the near future, but the settlement of
outstanding issues concerning the Nagorno-Karabakh region and Georgia’s
breakaway regions will take more time, and as such, the South Caucasus
region will remain a focus for rivalry between Washington and Moscow.