SINAN OGAN: THE FRAME OF TURKEY’S REGIONAL SECURITY EFFORTS IN THE CAUCASUS COOPERATION AND STABILITY PLATFORM
Regnum
Dec 11 2009
Russia
Five-day war that occurred in August 2008 radically changed to
security conception in South Caucasus. After August war, post-USSR
that was changed to regional balance in South Caucasus, Abhazia and
South Ossetia that are two of the frozen problems in the region were
resolved differently with their independence and the map of the energy
lines in the region has been opened to discussion. One of the region’s
two major power in which Turkey did not remain silent in the face of
these developments that occurred and immediately after the war, Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited to countries in the region. He
was brought up "Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform" proposal.
The opinion "Platform" was not originally a new one. Suleyman Demirel
who was the president of Turkish Republic firstly mention about this
opinion. Demirel were influenced from Southeastern Europe Stability
Pact (SESP) which is established in Sarajevo in the July 30,1999
for Balkans which has significant similarities with Caucasus. In
approximately six months after the establishment of SESP, in the
January 15,2000 posed as an idea that Caucasus Stability Pact (CSP)
planned towards from west to east on both sides of Black sea (Balkans
and Caucasus) for maintaining the Southeast Europe’s security.
However, all the world’s attention directed to the Balkans at that
time and this platform that envisaged for the Caucasus did not have
enough support so that it could not put into practice. Developments in
the meantime period has shown that such a platform is essential not
only in the Balkans but also in the South Caucasus in the same time
South Caucasus and even Middle East. Nevertheless, both Caucasus and
Middle East got late for establishing such a platform. In that this
proposal that raised in the wake of a war would have been interesting
in the beginning; however, passing the normal life had become much
more difficult.
It is understood that the Prime Minister Erdogan himself negotiated
with the President of the Russian Federation Dmitri Medvedev and
Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili and they discussed with the
proposal which has no possibility to carry out. Because that region
appeared a new balance in post- war period. Such a platform in each
country looks their own perception and each country has a different
South Caucasus security perception. As we look at the angle of the
Russian Federation, it is seen that Russia supports this proposal.
However, Russian’s expectation from this platform does not seem to
overlap with Georgia’s expectation.Russia defends to include both
Abhazia and South Ossetia in this platform.
Whereas Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan featured the territorial
integrity principle of th countries at the framework of this platform.
On the other hand, post-war region, Russia who is leadership in the
South Caucasus play important advantages compared to other competitors
who enter into the this platform really does not want to restrict
itself is considered.
Georgia is essentially eager to ensure the territorial integrity
within the framework.Furthermore, Georgia proposed by Turkey and not
think of getting in to the United States does not consider to its
own interest that the most important ally, US stay out this platform.
Georgia has not satisfied from Turkey’s neutralization during the war.
Conversely, Russian Federation President Dmitri Medvedev thanks for
Turkey’s neutralization stance to Erdogan. Whereas Georgia stated to
regard EU mediator instead of Turkey in post-war period.
Azerbaijan and Armenia has different expectations at the framework
of this platform and these expectation easily satisfied, at least it
does not seem possible to be solved in the short term.
"Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform" through proposal has
passed more than a year over the time. When we look at study which is
done through the proposal, Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform
(CSCP) can be seen at the technician level meeting of the first fives
in Helsinki.
To the first meeting of CSCP’s technicians’ level meeting within
the frame of the 16th Session of the Council of Ministers of The
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the Deputy
Secretary of Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Ambassador Unal Ceviköz)
from Turkey, and deputy secretaries of state from Russia, Georgia,
Armenia and Azerbaijan attended. It has been working on a draft
document at the meeting and this document is planned to include the
principle,objective and mechanism of CSCP. However, after this meeting,
the issue of CSCP could not be shown a remarkable improvement.
By all means, establishing and materializing a multilateral
organization in a problematic geography such as Caucasia doesn’t seem
to be easy. However, there are many reasons including the proposal
that had come from Turkey so that this led to frown on this proposal
for some regions and this proposal was not appropriated by the West.
The one reason of the proposal that could not develop "Caucasus
Stability and Cooperation Platform" has come from Turkey. Platform
proposal infrastructure hurriedly not preparing to be applied to work
in the post-war.The countries who have interests and the countries of
the regions have different expectations which are the most important
deadlock. Of course, we should indicate one year is too short a time
for such a difficult geography that tries to establish a stability
platform.
Even while Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organization which is
almost 20-year history was not be able to pass activity, the proposal
"Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform" will immediately put
into practice and it has a deep history in the region that should not
expect solutions to the problems. So do the problems of the region
have waited whether for the patience? How has to need the system in
order to prevent frozen problems by returning hot conflicts and solve
the current problems? Sure, the real issue that is considered is this.
Today, as we look at the region, we see that a new process started
to these regions. The change power in US, who think Barack Obama may
be what changes unlike the Bush administration’s Greater Middle East
Project, such as escaping from an obsession over a more realistic
policy in the period of power in the region?
First, we should express that after the attack September 11, US invaked
to Afghanistan and/but US is fighting terrorism there but it left the
task and it is eager to oust Saddam Hussein that was like the mission
of US. All of them caused the US to be found in the Iraqi quagmire.
U.S. invaked to Iraq within the framework of the Great Middle East
Project but this situation caused Iraq produce terror swamp.Moreover,
any return to the U.S. invasion of Iraq would not be the factor that
was obvious.Today, U.S. global domination continues to have returned
to Afghanistan again.
U.S. foreign policy has shifted to the center of gravity from the
Middle East to South Asia.With this new understanding of the changing
is elected as the new favorite places of Islamic world, the region
Afghanistan-Pakistan,by another name is South Asia region.we have
been shifted to see that our new perception "South Asia Project" is
geopolitical division of the Islamic center, the center of gravity
of the center from the classical Middle East to the South Asia.
Global Power placed to South Asia or Afghanistan obtain unlike to Iraq:
1. Superpower of the future, China has opportunity to make pressure
as neighbor to China.
2. It has opportunity to pressure as neighbor with another country
of the future, India
3. It is neighbor with one nuclear power of the Islam world, Pakistan
and even Pakistan became a part of the Afghan process in the future,
it appears as control over nuclear power is provided.
4. Iran will be completed to be surrounded.
Central Asia and thus the study of establishing control over the
fields of Russia’s interests are importantly won away.
Of course, these results can be reproduced so we have sufficiency
with this right now.
However, as we look at the history, ,i should not be forgotten that
Afghanistan’s nearly a "graveyard of Empires" function.
Today, while western countries unlike from Iraq to Afghanistan is
rapidly decreasing to coalition forces for support due to public
pressure still as distinct from Iraq to Afghanistan, for the first
time neighboring countries’ coalition forces fight to terrorism in
Afghanistan, they have to be albeit partially successful. Since terror
that could not be defeated in Afghanistan can threaten to get into the
ranging geography from Azerbaijan to Turkey and through the Pakistan,
India’s Kashmir region, China’s Xinjiang region, Central Asia.
Napoleon stated "Policy of states are their own geography" that is
important reality. There are necessary to helpful and supportive
regions to be successful in the South Asia geography. These regions
are Black Sea-Caucasus-Central Asia line. Firstly, it must ensure
the security of this line.
In our opinion, Black Sea-Caucasus line guvenligin saglanması yeni
dönemde bölgesel "Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform"
gibi bölgesel kapsamı giriÅ~_imler yerine ikili ve cok taraflı
baglantısı ;z giriÅ~_imler daha etkili olacaktır. In this framework
Turkey’s application "zero policy with neighbors" can examine as
a successful example. It is hardly difficult to seem that region
countries and the countries who have interest in the region bring
together a common platform.Moreover, the problems in Caucasus have deep
and historical issues and it is not easy to solve that process. In
this reason, the solution of problems addressed more quickly and
efficiently will result to establish regional corporate relations
a part of the energy that will be spent on improving and developing
bilateral relations.
Sinan Ogan — Turkish Centre for International Relations and Strategic
Analysis- TURKSAM Chairman
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