WPS Agency, Russia
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
December 30, 2009 Wednesday

ARMED AND HENCE DANGEROUS;
Azerbaijan and Armenia do not have superiority over each other

by Anatoly Khramchikhin
Source: Nezavismaya Gazeta, December 28, 2009, p. 10
[Translated from Russian]

MILITARY REVANCHE IN NAGORNO-KARABAKH: CHANCES OF AZERBAIJAN LOOK
ILLUSORY NOW; Neither Azerbaijan nor Armenia has decisive military
superiority. That is why a possible future war for Nagorno-Karabakh
will be fruitless and will not change the status quo.

After breakup of the USSR Armenia, Azerbaijan and self-proclaimed
Nagorno-Karabakh Republic received mostly their "own" parts of the
former Soviet army that were on their territories.

After breakup of the USSR Azerbaijan received 436 tanks, 558 fighting
infantry vehicles, 389 armored personnel carriers, 388 artillery
systems, 63 airplanes and eight helicopters. At the beginning of 1993,
Armenia had only 77 tanks, 150 fighting infantry vehicles, 38 armored
personnel carriers, 160 artillery systems, three airplanes and 13
helicopters. Along with this, the armed forces of Nagorno-Karabakh
became a "gray zone." Nagorno-Karabakh received some part (although a
small one) of armament of the Soviet army (the former 366th mechanized
infantry regiment) and some part of unregistered armament handed over
to it by Armenia.

Despite that the strength of the armed forces of Nagorno-Karabakh was
not known for sure, there were no doubts that by the beginning of the
Nagorno-Karabakh war Azerbaijan had a very significant superiority
over the armed forces of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. Moreover so, a
part of the armed forces of Armenia was used for guarding of the
border with Turkey that fully supported Baku and only presence of
Russian forces on the territory of Armenia prevented direct
interference of Turkey into the conflict.

Despite the superiority, Azerbaijan was seriously defeated in that war.

Armenia recognized loss of 52 tanks T-72, 54 fighting infantry
vehicles, 40 armored personnel carriers, six guns and mortars.
Naturally, losses of Nagorno-Karabakh were not known. Azerbaijan lost
186 tanks (160 T-72 and 26 T-55), 111 fighting infantry vehicles,
eight armored personnel carriers, seven self-propelled artillery
systems 47 guns and mortars, five multiple rocket launcher systems,
14-16 airplanes and five or six helicopters. It also wrote off the
following damaged hardware: 43 tanks (including 18 T-72), 83 fighting
infantry vehicles, 31 armored personnel carriers, one self-propelled
artillery system, 42 guns and mortars and eight multiple rocket
launcher systems.

Along with this, Azerbaijan took 23 T-72s, 14 fighting infantry
vehicles, 14 armored personnel carriers, one self-propelled artillery
system, eight guns and mortars from Armenia. Along with this, a
significant part of the armament lost by Azerbaijan was taken either
in good repair or with insignificant damages by the Armenian forces
and was included into the armed forces of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh
Republic.

Naturally, after the end of the war both countries were actively
arming themselves. Russia was the most important source of military
hardware for Armenia and something was bought in Eastern Europe.
Armenia also became the only buyer of Chinese multiple rocket launcher
system WM-80 (four units) copied by China from Smerch so far.

Due to the oil revenues Azerbaijan has military budget 300% bigger
than that of Armenia. Ukraine became the main armament supplier for
Baku. Azerbaijan declares that it has 381 tanks, 181 armored vehicles,
404 artillery systems, 75 combat airplanes and 15 strike helicopters.

With regard to Armenia, judging by the data that it provides in
accordance with the conventional forces in Europe treaty, its armed
forces remain stable for many years. As of January 1, Yerevan declared
that it had 110 tanks, 140 armored vehicles, 239 artillery systems, 16
airplanes and eight helicopters.

With regard to the armed forces of Nagorno-Karabakh, according to the
Azerbaijani data they have 316 tanks, 324 armored vehicles and 322
artillery systems. These data were obtained by arithmetic calculations
of where the Soviet armament went in the early 1990s. Along with this,
losses during the war are not taken into account (they are simply not
known) as well as the trophies (they are not known too).

Along with this, amazing stability of the Armenian armed forces shows
that at least a part of the armament acquired by Armenia is
transferred to the armed forces of Nagorno-Karabakh.

By now, Azerbaijan achieved almost 300% superiority over Armenia in
tanks and almost 400% superiority in combat airplanes. Along with
this, the armed forces of Nagorno-Karabakh are not taken into account.
There are grounds to suspect that the ground forces of
Nagorno-Karabakh are at least not less than the Armenian ones. This
means that even if Azerbaijan has ground superiority it is very
insignificant. Along with this, geography plays on the side of
Armenians. Hence, the Azerbaijani potential is absolutely insufficient
for successful offensive.

Only in the air Azerbaijan has an indisputable superiority. Armenia
has one MiG-25 and Azerbaijan has 32 MiG-25s. Along with this, their
usefulness is not much bigger than that of one Armenian airplane. The
reason is that MiG-25 is a very specific airplane. In the Soviet Air
Defense Forces it was intended for combating of American strategic
bombers and reconnaissance airplanes and not for maneuverable air
combat. It is simply unsuitable for fulfillment of tactical tasks.

Along with this, attack airplanes Su-25 fight perfectly well on the
battlefield and each party has 15 such airplanes. For attacking of
ground targets Azerbaijan has five frontline bombers Su-24 and five
old but good attack airplanes Su-17. For maneuverable air combat
Azerbaijan has five ancient MiG-21s that are quite suitable for this
theater and 13 quite new MiG-29s. Correspondingly, the air force of
Azerbaijan will neutralize the Armenian Su-25 having no fighter
support easily (one MiG-25 cannot fulfill this task for sure),
enabling Azerbaijan bombers and attack airplanes to work on the
battlefield unopposed.

In any case, the power of Azerbaijani air force is not as big as to
change the course of the war on the ground (it is also possible to
suspect that the level of pilot skills is not the best in the world).
Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh also have ground air defense that may be
very efficient in the mountains.

That is why it is possible to say with assurance that chances of
Azerbaijan for military revanche look very illusory now.