The Messenger, Georgia
Dec 30 2009

Alternative transit routes for Azerbaijan

By Messenger Staff Thursday, December 31

Since Armenia and Turkey have started negotiating the possible opening
of their mutual border and establishing better relations, Azerbaijan
has started seeking new ways to transport its energy which would
bypass Turkey. Konrad Zasztowt, an analyst from the Polish National
Security Bureau, says that the Azeri side expressed its scepticism
over the NABUCCO project when President Ilham Aliev stated that there
are other alternatives. The analyst says that this statement does not
mean that Azerbaijan will withdraw from the project but that this will
be the Azeri standpoint in negotiations about it.

Of course Azerbaijan is not ignoring the Turkish transit route for its
energy resources as it is the most attractive of the existing routes,
but due to the improvement in Turkish-Armenian relations, and its
refusal to include Armenia in any project it is part of, Azerbaijan is
exploring the possibility of transporting its energy resources through
other routes, Russia, Iran and Georgia.

At present Azerbaijan supplies Russia with 5,000 million cubic metres
of gas annually. Of course this amount does not create big profits for
Azerbaijan but could be increased at any moment very considerably
purely by making a political decision. Azerbaijan is also connected to
Iran by a gas pipeline and 7 billion cubic metres of gas will be
exported there annually. However the Polish analyst thinks that it is
unlikely that Azerbaijan will be much willing to increase cooperation
with Iran, firstly because due to the global economic crisis it cannot
sell the gas transported via Iran at European prices and secondly
because this could undermine Baku-Washington relations.

The other alternatives route is through Georgia, with the oil and gas
going on through the Black Sea and either Ukraine or Romania. During
his Bucharest trip at the end of September Aliev negotiated the
possibility of constructing in oil terminal in Constanca and a
pipeline for transporting Azeri products there. Azeri oil could be
transported to Ukraine as well, and some has already been transported
to Odessa and from there to the Kremenchug refinery.

The possibility of sending Azeri oil through the Odessa-Brody
pipeline, with a possible extension through Poland, is also being
discussed. All these alternative plans will take time to be
implemented however, and so everything depends on the Turkish position
towards Armenia, Azerbaijan and the Karabakh issue.