Hurriyet Daily News
Dec 31 2009
>From rehearsal to performance: 2009 to 2010
Thursday, December 31, 2009
SERKAN DEMÄ°RTAÅ?
ANKARA ` Hürriyet Daily News
As the world spins out of 2009 and lands in 2010, Turkey is poised for
another year of nail-biting moments and heart-stopping developments.
>From the Ergenekon investigation to the Armenian initiative, from the
Kurdish issue to EU membership, there is much work to be done and news
to be covered as we take another trip around the sun.
Ahmet Türk.
Predictions of how the country’s agenda will play out in 2010 are no
longer shrouded in mystery ` the new year will be a continuation of
2009.
Many pending issues like the Ergenekon case and other alleged plots
against top government personalities, the reconciliation process with
Armenia, and the Cyprus negotiations will continue to develop and take
unexpected twists. It’s impossibly to know today which ones will
finish with a happy ending.
Domestic tension
In domestic politics, there is widespread concern that the political
tension born in 2009 will increase further at the expense of
deteriorating, already-fragile ties between key state institutions.
Though there is a perception that the Ergenekon investigation slowed
down during the second half of 2009, there are still more than 150
people in prison, among them prominent journalists, academics and
officers. Be sure the case will pass through critical junctures in
2010, but legal experts warn that its conclusion might be far, far off
in the future.
>> Click for the "A review of 2009 in headlines" photo gallery
Regarding civil-military ties, unearthed weapons caches revealed
alleged military plans to topple the government. The recent claims
that two high-ranking officers were planning to plot against Deputy
Prime Minister Bülent Arınç will surely have implications in the
coming year. Chief of General Staff Gen. Ä°lker BaÅ?buÄ? is expected to
leave his post to current land forces commander Gen. IÅ?ık KoÅ?aner in
August. The attitude of the military in 2010 will be determined by how
the country addresses these difficult times.
Ruling party and opposition
Relations between the government’s ruling party and its two main
opposition parties are lacking an optimistic approach as 2010 begins.
The year 2009 witnessed some of the worst government-opposition
dialogue in recent memory, marked by the use of offensive language.
Very little change is foreseen in the relations as long as the
government-led Kurdish initiative continues to be the main fault line
for domestic politics.
The government has already announced its determination to keep the
initiative on track through a number of legal efforts, which it hopes
might even increase the initiative’s momentum. Draft laws granting
more rights to Turkish citizens of Kurdish origin are expected to be
submitted early in the new year. It is still unknown, however, if this
process alone can eradication terrorist attacks by the outlawed
Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK. Additionally, the surrender of PKK
members, especially in northern Iraq, will depend on the effectiveness
of cooperation among Turkey, Iraq and the United States. This is one
example why 2010 will be important in terms of foreign policy.
Furthermore, U.S. plans to withdraw troops from Iraq in 2010 are
crucial for Turkey’s plans to end PKK terrorism. The trilateral
mechanism between Turkey, Iraq and the U.S. and the deepened ties
between the Turkish government and the Regional Kurdish Administration
have yet to prove their success in creating a better environment for
jointly fighting the PKK. One thing is sure: There will be more
dialogue and diplomatic visits between Turkey and Iraq in 2010.
Mixed bag for 2010
The most notable event in 2009 took place in Zurich, Switzerland where
Turkey and Armenia signed historic protocols to establish diplomatic
ties and open the border. The two countries, however, have already
postponed ratifying the protocols to sometime in 2010. In full support
of the process the U.S. will likely put pressure on Turkey to ratify
the protocols quickly. This pressure is expected to increase as April
24 nears, which is the annual commemoration date for the killings of
Armenians at the end of Ottoman Empire in 1915.
Another important issue 2010 will inherit from 2009 will be Iran’s
nuclear program. Turkey’s position until now is far from satisfying to
the Western world.
On Cyprus, no doubt 2010 will prove to be an important year. Despite
international efforts, Turkish and Greek Cypriots did not make real
progress toward a plan that can be put to referendum. What makes the
situation worrisome is that Turkish Cypriots will hold presidential
elections in April and the current head of the nation and pro-solution
Mehmet Ali Talat risks losing his post to a more hard-liner
politician.
The process on the island will also have an impact on Turkey’s
membership talks with the European Union as they approach a deadlock
due to Ankara’s refusal to open ports and airports to Greek Cypriot
vessels. Two-thirds of the 35 negotiation chapters are blocked by the
Greek Cypriots and other member countries. Though Turkey’s chief EU
negotiator Egemen BaÄ?ıÅ? said the government is determined to make more
democratic reforms, the key to opening Turkey’s path to the EU will be
the fate of Cyprus question.