news.am, Armenia
Jan 1 2010

No crucial changes in Nagorno-Karabakh peace process next year, expert says

09:01 / 01/01/2010The initialing of an Armenian-Turkish roadmap, as
well as the signing of the Armenian-Turkish protocols, has been the
most significant event of this year. This brought about serious
changes not only in the to states’ political life, but also in the way
of thinking. This has also been the axis of further domestic and
foreign political developments this year and will play this role next
year, the political analyst Artak Shakaryan told NEWS.am.

Armenia’s foreign policy can be considered successful next year if the
Armenian-Turkish protocols are ratified before next April. It will
have most favorable consequences for Armenia, particularly for its
international role. `The ratification of the protocols after next
April may have unfavorable consequences,’ Shakaryan said. He pointed
out that every day postponing the ratification is of crucial
importance for the Armenian-Turkish protocols. It is not only that the
95th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide will be marked on April 24.
Rather, 2010 is a pre-election year in Turkey, and every day that
brings the election date closer puts off the ratification of the
protocols, he said. `If Turkey refuses to ratify the protocols, it
will find itself under pressure in the form of Yerevan’s pulling out
of the process. On the other hand, the process of international
recognition of the Armenian Genocide will hardly be intensified as a
means of pressure,’ Shakaryan said.

As regards the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, he does not rule out
that next year, under Turkey’s pressure, the resolution will be linked
to the Armenian-Turkish normalization process. `Resorting to a
compromise, the international community may influence the parties to
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict toward signing a symbolic document, just
to show some progress. But no radical changes in the Nagorno-Karabakh
peace process should be expected next year,’ Shakaryan said.

T.P.