news.am, Armenia
Jan 2 2010

Ivlian Khaindrava: Armenian-Turkish protocols, Eastern Partnership
achievements of year 2009

17:09 / 01/02/2010Below is an interview with one of the leaders of the
opposition Republican Party of Georgia, well-known political scientist
Ivlian Khaindrava.

NEWS.am: What are major achievements and failures of the South
Caucasus, particularly Georgia, last year?

Khaindrava: Among the achievements (which have yet to be practically
applied) are first of all the signing of the Armenian-Turkish
protocols in Zurich, and the launching of the Eastern Partnership
program, with the South Caucasus states involved in it. The latter is
aimed at expanding the EU’s presence in the region, which, I, a
Georgian liberal, think should be welcomed. Full-scale implementation
of the project can improve the situation in the region. Last year did
not see any disasters similar to the war in August 2008, though, on
the whole, it was a year of depression and failures for Georgia. Last
year was also `painful’ for the Armenian economy, and Azerbaijan, in
turn, has nothing special to boast about. As regards failures, it can
‘ and must ` be said that none of the states of the region did
anything to develop democracy. Quite the contrary!

NEWS.am: What are the changes in the geopolitical situation in the
region? Did the states of the region succeed in improving their
security and reputation last year?

Khaindrava: As I have already said, we can only see signs of
improvement. It is not clear whether ` and to what extent ‘ the
opportunities will be taken. Georgia continued losing its reputation `
none of the Western states invited our President to pay an official
visit. As regards the multilateral formats, the U.N. General Assembly
or the Eastern Partnership Summit in Paris, they do not count. Armenia
attracted favorable attention due to its active dialogue with Turkey,
and Azerbaijan’s reputation hardly changed in any way. Regional
security remains a rather abstract concept, and we can easily speak of
ever-present threat.

NEWS.am: Did any changes take place in positions and influence on the
region by the Great Powers, Russia and the United States? Did any
changes in the relations between the states of the region take place?

Khaindrava: The New U.S. Administration showed a more retrained and
realistic attitude to Saakashvili. Of course, the United States is not
going to turn its back on Georgia, but its aid to our country will
depend on our ability to conform to the ideals we declared.
Correspondingly, America (and Europe) once again resorted to a
regional approach ` they are expecting us (the states of the region)
to be able to resolve our own problems and come to terms, considering
each other interests. In this context, Georgia made a hope-inspiring
decision to reopen the Upper Lars checkpoint at the Georgian-Russian
border, which proved to be a piece of good news for Armenia.

Unfortunately, we cannot speak of any changes in the policy of Russia,
which goes on viewing the South Caucasus as an area of its direct, or
rather, `brute’ influence. Since August 2008, Russia has beefed up its
military presence in the region, which has not enhanced security, but
has heightened the risks.

NEWS.am: What are your forecasts for 2010 in the context of a rather
strained situation in the South Caucasus? Can a new military conflict
break out or the `frozen’ ones resume?

Khaindrava: I am not good at making forecasts. I would like to take
advantage of the opportunity to express my wishes just before the New
Year. I want the Armenian-Turkish dialogue to develop in conformity
with the roadmap. It would be great if real progress in the
Nagorno-Karabakh peace process were made. We have to find means of
resolving the severe crisis in the Russian-Georgian relations,
resuming a direct dialogue between Tbilisi and Sukhumi (Abkhazia) and
between Tbilisi and Tskhinval (South Ossetia). The war in August 2008
clearly showed the `explosive potential’ of the frozen conflicts.
Post-war Europe showed the best experience of settling disputes,
finding common interests and forming mutually beneficial multilateral
relations. It would be great if we, all together, progressed toward
institutionalizing liberal democracy and could see the 2011 in in much
higher spirits than 2010.

T.P.