news.am, Armenia
Jan 4 2009

Andrei Areshev: The Caucasus map may become unrecognizable

15:07 / 01/04/2010Last year did not bring closer the solution to any
of the South Caucasian conflicts ` the Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazian or
Ossetian ones, Andrei Areshev, Deputy Director General of the
Strategic Culture Foundation (Russia) told NEWS.am. Last year did not
see any breakthrough in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, and `it is
unlikely in 2010 either.’

`Maintaining the status quo seems to be the most optimistic scenario
for the region. The primary reason is Azerbaijan’s radical position on
Nagorno-Karabakh’s future status,’ Areshev said. The situation is
rather difficult, and an active information policy is a priority task
for both Armenia and Azerbaijani authorities. This policy is in
explaining to the mediators the essence of the conflict and the
possible negative consequences the `unfreezing’ may have.

`On the other hand, the Armenian side is well aware that surrendering
even one of the regions or a small territory without any guarantees,
with no one able to give them, is fraught with grave consequences for
not only Nagorno-Karabakh, but also for Armenia,’ the expert said.

As to the possibility of a new military conflict or the resumption of
old ones, Areshev does not rule it out. On the other hand, he said
that much depends on the conflicting parties. If they properly realize
the actual estate of affairs and the fact that any changes of the
status are possible only with reliable international guarantees
provided, the situation will remain unchanged. Nagorno-Karabakh’s
status will mainly be negotiated in 2010, Areshev said. `The
negotiations may last as long as possible, which may cause discontent
with the process or results. But any negotiations are better than no
negotiations or resumptions of conflicts,’ the expert said.

As regards the Armenia-Turkey reconciliation process, which, Areshev
said, was the most significant event in 2009 and caused Armenians to
experience ambivalent feelings, but the situation required concrete
steps. `Unfortunately, there are the third parties, Azerbaijan and the
United States, which, according to some information, proposed this
initiative,’ he said.

Any fundamental changes can hardly be expected in 2010. `As to the
following years, I would prefer less historicism, as we can witness
rather dynamic developments and may fail to recognize the map of the
South Caucasus,’ Areshev said. If Ankara goes on linking the
Armenia-Turkey reconciliation to the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process,
which is Azerbaijan’s wish, the process will reach a stalemate.

As regards the other conflicts in the South Caucasus ` South Ossetia
and Abkhazia `

Areshev pointed out that the situation is being consistently
exacerbated, and the process will go on. `Gross provocations are
possible late in 2010 and early in 2011,’ he said. Although Russia
recognized South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states, Georgia
has not put us with the loss. Active militarization is under way in
Georgia, and, as before, under the United States’ immediate direction.
`Nothing has changed since the Bush Administration was in power ` only
it is not as public as before. The support is not so overt, but old
methods are applied,’ Areshev said. Georgia has considerably enhanced
its army’s fighting efficiency since August 2008. `Russia, with its
influence over the South Caucasus weakened in 2009, will have to meet
new challenges,’ the expert said. He expressed hope that Russia will
intensify its role in 2010 and will make its foreign policy
transparent.

T.P.