Today’s Zaman, Turkey
Jan 4 2010

Professor Akgün: Cyprus conflict could interrupt Turkey’s EU accession

Foreign policy expert Mensur Akgün has said that Turkey’s accession to
the European Union might come to a halt if the Cyprus conflict remains
unresolved.

`[Greek Cypriots] believe that Turkey will give in at the end when it
becomes a member of the EU. But this is not a realistic option for the
Greek Cypriots. They should realize that they lost leverage in the EU
because many chapters are being blocked by them and France,’ he told
Today’s Zaman for Monday Talk.

Akgün added that Turkey has lost its desire to become a member of the
EU and is not ready to make any sacrifice.

`Even in the reform process, EU membership is a non-issue. Look at the
debate on and around the Kurdish problem — you won’t see any
reference to the Copenhagen political criteria,’ he said.

There is still hope because of the frequent talks scheduled between
the Turkish and Greek Cypriot leaders in the coming weeks. Since
September 2008, Greek Cypriot leader Dimitris Christofias and Turkish
Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat have met more than 50 times under UN
auspices to discuss a deal to reunify the island. The previous round
of talks ended when Greek Cypriots rejected a UN settlement plan in a
2004 referendum.

Another foreign policy issue that will shake up the first few months
of 2010 is Turkish-Armenian rapprochement. Akgün, who recently
returned from a working visit to Armenia, also answered our questions
on that topic.

The Armenian parliament is to decide on Jan. 12 whether or not the
protocols signed with Turkey are constitutional. What do you think the
outcome will be?

The chief advisor to the Armenian president and the foreign minister
say that the Constitutional Court in Armenia will approve the
protocols. All civil society leaders also support the view that the
approval process is a procedural matter. They also say that Turkey
needs to move in that direction by the end of March at the latest in
order to alleviate the Armenian opposition’s reaction to the approval
of the protocols.

Do you think Turkey will be able to move swiftly in that regard?

Turkey is in a difficult position because of the internal opposition
and the reactions from Azerbaijan. It is difficult for Turkey to move
forward without any tangible progress in the talks between Armenia and
Azerbaijan regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh issue and the surrounding
regions. But there is not much time, as April is the month when the
issue of genocide becomes prominent and tensions rise. Both sides will
face fiercer opposition domestically and internationally. So as agreed
in the protocols, the Armenian side expects Turkey to take steps
without linking its normalization of relations with Armenia to the
conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. The Armenian side
believes that Turkey’s conditions discourage the parties within the
Minsk process. When asked for a gesture or a partial withdrawal, they
usually refer to the Cyprus problem in which the withdrawal of
military forces is linked to the overall settlement.

So the Armenian side argues that Turkey’s conditions help neither the
rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia nor the rapprochement between
Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Yes, rightly or wrongly this is something Turkey should take into
consideration. They have a point that the processes are parallel, but
if one of the tracks becomes a precondition for [progress on] the
other, then the cycle of conflict can never be broken. Moreover,
Turkey is struggling with a spate of serious domestic problems such as
the Kurdish problem, trying to settle the score with its unpleasant
past. I don’t think the government can shoulder yet another political
burden and deal with the Armenian issue considering the opposition in
Parliament and dissent in the streets. Needless to say, they don’t
want to jeopardize relations with Azerbaijan. All in all, it is not
easy for Turkey to move forward unless there is some progress in the
talks between the parties.

More specifically, like what?

Like progress in the Minsk process. But it is also possible that third
parties trying to contribute to the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh
problem can put pressure on Azerbaijan or at least convince the
Azerbaijani leadership of the virtues of rapprochement between Turkey
and Armenia. I suspect that if left to its own pace and fate, the
relations between Armenia and Turkey may stumble again. The best
option for all of us would of course be progress in the Minsk process.

`Turkey’s EU accession might come to a halt’
Turkish Cypriot President Talat said there is not much progress toward
a peaceful settlement in Cyprus. Where is that process going?

There is a ray of hope because of condensed talks between the Turkish
and Greek Cypriot leaders in the coming weeks. But it is hard to
expect concrete results from these talks.

Why is that?

Because the Greek Cypriots are not yet there and do not seem to be
ready to accept a fair settlement similar to the Annan Plan. They also
have some preconditions such as the withdrawal of Turkish troops from
the island. Meanwhile, we have a very complex property problem ahead
of us. The principle of bizonality conflicts with individual property
rights. The Greek side believes that they have the upper hand due to
Turkey’s desire to become a member of the EU. They file cases against
Turkey in the European Court of Human Rights and thus threaten to
undermine Talat’s capacity to negotiate.

What would motivate the Greek Cypriots to have a positive approach in
reconciliation?

They could be motivated if they are convinced that Turkey’s accession
to the European Union might come to a halt if the Cyprus conflict
remains unresolved. Otherwise, they believe that Turkey will give in
at the end when it becomes a member of the EU. But this is not a
realistic option for the Greek Cypriots. They should realize that they
lost leverage in the EU because many chapters are being blocked by
them and France. Turkey lost its appetite to become a member and is
not ready for any sacrifice. Even in the reform process, EU membership
is a non-issue. Look at the debate on and around the Kurdish problem,
you won’t see any reference to the Copenhagen political criteria.

Is it possible that Turkey’s accession negotiations might stop in 2010?

It is possible, although no one wants that. Not the Greeks, not the
Turks, not the French — no one desires that. But when we look at
practical developments, we move toward that direction. We may not have
any chapters to negotiate. As you know, eight chapters have been
suspended due to Turkey’s non-compliance with its customs union
responsibilities, that is to say, for not opening its air and sea
ports to Greek Cypriot flagged vessels. Five of the chapters are de
facto blocked by France to discourage Turkey from full membership. The
Greek Cypriots announced recently that they will block six more
chapters. There are other obstacles and conditions for progress in
Turkey’s accession, not to mentions the ones blocked by Turkey due to
benchmarks.

Do you see other obstacles in front of Turkey’s EU accession process?

There are no other issues blocking Turkey’s EU accession process. In
the field of foreign policy, Turkey and the EU complement each other.
They are on parallel tracks, be it in the Caucasus or in other places.
The only question mark may emerge with regard to Iran. But as a member
of the UN Security Council, Turkey will act in conformity with its
decisions. Unilateral actions or sanctions will not be appreciated by
Turkey, but it is highly unlikely for such actions or sanctions to
come from the EU.

`Turkey part of solutions, not problems’
You don’t seem to support the idea of an `axis shift’ in Turkey’s
foreign policy.

This is not a realistic debate. There is no shift in Turkey’s foreign
policy orientation. Obviously some countries and even some analysts
didn’t like to see Turkey involved with the problems in surrounding
regions and claimed that Turkey was distancing itself from its Western
allies. It is true that Turkey deals with problems and is sometimes
outspoken about them, but this does not mean that Turkey is
exclusively focusing on the Middle East and calibrating its foreign
policy on the basis of what they see there. When it comes to its
neighborhood, Turkey does not have to be successful in all of its
attempts to solve problems either. The process sometimes is as
important as the result. You can’t achieve everything you desire all
the time.

Are you talking about Turkey’s role in talks between Israel and Syria?

Yes, last time Turkey failed, but it was not because of what Turkey
did. It was because of Israel’s intervention in Gaza and its results,
the human tragedy. Moreover, don’t expect miracles from Ankara. Turkey
may also fail to bring peace to the region just like the US, the EU,
Russia and even China do. But failures should not deter us from
mediation, arbitration or facilitation. In terms of determination,
there is an — if you wish to call it that — axis shift in Turkey’s
foreign policy. It is more conciliatory and more oriented toward
problem-solving. Turkey no longer wants to be associated with problems
but with solutions.

What would you say about some of Turkey’s other initiatives in the
neighborhood? Do you see any success stories?

We see some tangible results from this reconciliatory mindset. For
instance, there is a huge shift in the perception of northern Iraqi
Kurds. They are no longer seen as archenemies of Turkey. Ankara is
collaborating with them on several fronts. We are likely to reap the
benefits in the fight against terrorism and in settling our own
Kurdish problem. On the Armenian front, despite obstacles, we also see
progress. These two protocols have at least been signed.

Turkey recently tabled a new offer for the solution of the Cyprus
conflict and asked the EU to keep only one of its promises made to the
Turkish Cypriots in return for opening ports and airports to the Greek
Cypriots. Needless to say, Turkey can solve neither its own problems
nor problems faced by others alone. No one can. But it can facilitate
their solution. I believe such a Turkey is much better for all of us
than a Turkey resisting any kind of solution, aggressive, revisionist
and basing its policies on ethnic and religious brotherhood.

04 January 2010, Monday
YONCA POYRAZ DOÄ?AN Ä°STANBUL