Today, Azerbaijan
Jan 7 2010
Azerbaijani political expert: Negotiations to resolve Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict are at finish line
07 January 2010 [12:03] – Today.Az
Day.Az interview with Azerbaijani political expert Eldar Namazov.
Is the Armenia-Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh conflict likely to be
resolved in 2010, especially in the first decade of the year?
Already in the second half of 2009, co-chais of the OSCE Minsk Group
made statements about possibility of reaching agreement on basic
principles of the conflict resolution in the coming months. Although
it did not happen, these statements indicate that the talks are at the
finish line.
Apparently, 2010 will clarify final fate of the "Prague Process" and
the so-called "Madrid principles". There is possibility to delay the
agreement and repeat these long-known conditions over and over again
for couple of months, or six months. But in 2010 one needs to expect
either singing of an agreement or formal recognition that " Prague
process" failed giving no results.
In the meantime, there is favorable international environment around
the negotiation process and co-chairs act coherently and consistently
while socio-economic situation in Armenia strongly necessitates
normalization of relations with its neighbors, without which the
economic prospects of the country, to put it mildly, are vague. There
are still skepticism about prospects of reaching agreement about basic
principles in the first half of 2010.
Many internal and external factors are pushing Armenia to necessary
compromises, but in fact, Yerevan believes that it is easier to push
normalization of relations with Turkey through public opinion than
with Azerbaijan despite almost century-old propaganda of the enemy
image for Turks and accusations of the so-called "genocide"! It should
be borne in mind that when the so-called "Prague process" started,
there was no indication that this process can result in a breakthrough
and agreement. Armenia viewed it as the next stage of simulation of
the negotiation process and prolonging the situation in the occupied
territories.
Consequences of the Russian-Georgian August war and the global
economic crisis have changed the situation in the region in the middle
of "low-intensity" Prague process. Russia came up with a real
motivation to reach a settlement, and Armenia, following decline of
per capita GDP by almost 20 percent in 2009 and dim prospects for
economic future, is obliged to urgently seek ways of restoring
economic relations with its neighbors. Therefore, Armenia has been
taken aback. The situation is completely different than it was in the
beginning of the "Prague process". Armenia faces a very difficult
choices.
Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan has stated that Armenia is ready to
ratify the Armenia-Turkey protocols. Do you believe the protocols will
be ratified and borders be opened till April 24, the next anniversary
of the so-called `Armenian genocide’?
As some kind of time-frame for achieving a breakthrough in
Turkish-Armenian relations, April 24 is usually viewed in the context
that the Armenian lobby in the U.S. Congress threatens that a
resolution recognizing the so-called "genocide" can be adopted till
that date. Although this is a very sensitive moment the Turkish
diplomacy, I think that there is underestimation of Turkey’s
independence in making important foreign policy decisions.
Once despite massive pressure of all branches of the United States
government, Turkey refused to allow its territory to be used for
military purposes against Iraqi thus questioning relationship of the
strategic alliance with the United States. Today Americans are obliged
to admit that Turkey was right. It was the previous Washington
administration that made a mistake.
Therefore, it is a clear mistake to assume that the Armenian lobby in
the U.S. Congress may force Turkey to adopt a rush decision
contradicting country’s interests. Moreover, it became clear in recent
months that opening the border with Armenia depends entirely on other
factors. It is already known that resolution of the Karabakh conflict
and normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations are two sides of a
coin.
They can be formally pulled apart under various diplomatic formats.
However, there will be either parallel breakthroughs in both issues or
the situation will remain "frozen" in both directions. So, prospects
of achieving those breakthroughs depend on the answer to one question
– what was Armenia’s aim when it initiated the process of
Turkish-Armenian normalization?
In your opinion, what was Armenia’s real goal?
It certainly will not work if Yerevan aims at driving a wedge in the
Turkish-Azerbaijani relations, to get Turkey to change its stance on
resolving the Karabakh conflict, opening of Turkish-Armenian border,
beginning of economic cooperation with Turkey without any compromise
in the Karabakh conflict and withdrawal from the occupied territories.
In this case, we will see no opening of the Turkish-Armenian border
and no breakthrough in resolving the Karabakh conflict. But if Yerevan
is aimed normalizing relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan and securing
peace and stability in the region when it initiated the protocols, we
may witness breakthroughs in both directions.
Yerevan has not given a clear answer to this question yet. It is
unclear whether the initiative was part of Yerevan’s political
intrigue, or it really wants peace and stability in the region.
Acting fairly consistently in terms of normalizing ties with Turkey,
it still keeps on blocking success in settlement of the Karabakh
conflict which raises serious questions in Ankara and Baku and around
the world about true objectives of Armenia’s policy. Armenia’s
attitude to compromise on resolution of the conflict has become a kind
of "litmus paper" on which prospects for normalization of
Turkish-Armenian relations depend.
N. Abdullayeva
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