AzerNews Weekly, Azerbaijan
Jan 6 2010

Azeri analyst sees war threat in the Caucasus

06-01-2010 23:08:00

The threat of war has escalated in the Caucasus region, an Azerbaijani
analyst has opined.
Mubariz Ahmadoghlu, the head of the Center for Political Innovation
and Technology, told a news conference on the outcomes of 2009 that
rising tension in the northern Caucasus is a serious hazard for the
turbulent region. According to him, the tension is caused by
socio-economic challenges and unfair attitude toward the nations
living in the region.
Ahmadoghlu said further that Russia-Armenia relations are currently
facing a dire crisis. However, the predicament is not evident mainly
for two reasons.
`Since more serious processes are ongoing around Armenia, the crisis
in its relations with Russia is not seen ostensibly. Another main
point is that Armenia is managing to hide the tension in its relations
with Russia,’ the analyst said.
Ahmadoghlu said the most vivid sign of the current tension between
Moscow and Yerevan is the Russian president’s avoiding a meeting with
the Armenian leader under various pretexts.
Ahmadoghlu noted that Armenia’s hopes for the Collective Security
Treaty Organization (CSTO), the military arm of the former Soviet bloc
CIS, have not been justified. He added that Moscow has recently
countered Yerevan’s joining NATO events twice.
The Caucasus region remains a source of tension due to lingering
conflicts. Azerbaijan and Armenia have been facing a conflict for
nearly two decades. Armenia continues to occupy Upper Garabagh and
seven other Azerbaijani districts despite international calls and UN
resolutions demanding its pullout. Baku has not ruled out military
action to liberate its land and has spent billions on dollars on
building up its military.*