news.az, Azerbaijan
Jan 8 2010

There is no complete unity among mediators on Karabakh conflict settlement
Fri 08 January 2010 | 06:11 GMT Text size:

Alexey Vlasov News.Az interviews Alexey Vlasov, director of Moscow
State University’s analytical centre on post-Soviet states.

How would you evaluate 2009 in terms of stabilization of the situation
around Nagorno Karabakh?

2009 has not become a turning point in terms of the conflict
settlement, but new positive trends that may lead to a breakthrough in
the Karabakh issue have been recorded within the year. This is
primarily the overall intensification of the negotiation process,
activation of the moderators working to reconcile the positions of
the hostile parties. A complicated process of negotiations is under
way and the most important is that it is proceeding as a constant, not
a sporadic movement. Moreover, it became clear that the first
achievement in the Karabakh conflict can be reached through return of
several Azerbaijani regions around Nagorno Karabakh by Armenia. The
fact that this step is important has been clear before, but now
Yerevan also admits this fact which is an important change.

Do you consider that the superpowers have been quite active in their
attempts to settle the conflict or, on the contrary, they have not
demonstrated the due interest?

I think the intention of external powers to settle the conflict was
demonstrated more clearly. But the problem is that the roadmap of the
settlement has not yet come true including for the reason of certain
differences in the positions of Brussels, Washington and Moscow. There
is no complete unity among the mediators. Second, it is difficult for
the United States to conduct the two processes at the same time as it
lacks the necessary creativity. Therefore, Washington has concentrated
its main efforts on the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement.

What are your expectations from 2010? Can Kazakhstan’s OSCE
chairmanship in 2010 help overcome a breakthrough in the Karabakh
process?

I am not sure that Kazakhstan will be able to intensify OSCE’s efforts
in this process though, undoubtedly, Nursultan Nazarbayev will take
steps to settle the Karabakh issue. But this is the case when
Kazakhstan’s intentions do not coincide with the real opportunities of
the OSCE which are not so significant. The organization is passing
through a complex period of a search of `a new identity’. It needs
internal reformation. Therefore, I am sure there will be many
initiatives but most of them would hardly come true.

Leyla Tagiyeva
News.Az