Climate Study Predicts Water Shortage in Armenia

Asbarez
Jan 7th, 2010 .

BY JASON SOHIGIAN
>From Cicer et cetera Blog

The UNDP Armenia has released a thorough and alarming study conducted
by the Stockholm Environment Institute on The Socio-Economic Impact of
Climate Change in Armenia. The 130-page report was written by
Elizabeth A. Stanton, Frank Ackerman, and Flavia Resende, who are
highly respected experts in the field of environmental economics.
[Download the report here]

The study points out that climate change will have far-reaching
effects on social and economic life, and the ability for people to
adapt will depend on whether or not funding will be available to
support adaptive policy measures and how quickly these policies can be
implemented. `Armenia’s future economic development will depend on the
decisions that the current generation makes about investments in
adaptation [to climate change],’ warns the report.

According to this UNDP study, national scenarios forecast an increase
to Armenia’s average annual temperature to be 4.5 degrees C in the
lowlands and 7 degrees C in the highlands over the next century.
Average annual precipitation is expected to decrease by as much as 9
percent, with the biggest reductions predicted for Yerevan and the
Ararat Valley, which can expect 30 percent less precipitation by 2100.
Higher temperatures will lead to more evaporation which means less
soil moisture and reductions of up to 24 percent in river flows, which
will reduce the availability of water for agriculture and power
generation.

On an optimistic note, the experts from the Stockholm Environment
Institute point out that many of the best available climate adaptation
policy measures can be important for Armenia’s economic development.
These include improving water and power generation infrastructure,
integrating climate adaptation in plans for economic development and
energy production, planning for more efficient use of resources in the
context of growth and higher rates of consumption, and considering the
needs and vulnerabilities of rural and low income households.

`Unless quick action is taken on large-scale adaptation measures, it
is unlikely that Armenian families, their livelihoods, or their
economy will be unscathed by climate change. Armenia’s poor and
especially its rural poor populations will be particularly
vulnerable,’ warn the authors. `Social impacts will include an
increased incidence of illness from heat waves as temperatures rise, a
shortage of water and an increase to electricity tariffs as competing
needs collide, food shortages or increased food prices as agricultural
productivity falters, and an increased incidence of dangerous and
damaging landslides, mudflows, and floods as dry soil and
deforestation coincide with extreme storms.’

UNDP representative Dirk Boberg points out that this report is a pilot
process undertaken by UNDP in only a few countries. He indicates that
the priority sectors for adaptation to the impacts of climate change
are water, agriculture, energy, and forests. `[This study] provides
economic analysis and recommendations for decision-makers that need to
manage the impacts of climate change by minimizing negative impacts
and maximizing adaptation opportunities,’ he writes in the foreword to
The Socio-Economic Impact of Climate Change in Armenia.