/PanARMENIAN.Net/

2009 ends with unsettled conflicts and general wariness

Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh should not so much rely on the world
community, which `will not allow’ an armed conflict between Azerbaijan
and Nagorno Karabakh.
05.01.2010 GMT+04:00

As expected, the year of 2009 ended with unsettled conflicts, general
wariness and an `incomprehensible’ situation in the South Caucasus.
Turkish, Armenian and Azerbaijani Foreign Ministers’ statements on the
desire to establish `peace and stability’ in the region were in fact
wiped out by Azeri President Ilham Aliyev’s New Year address. Once
again unable to find anything better, Official Baku began to threaten
with a war.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Aliyev’s behaviour can be explained by the fact that
another meeting between the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan is
scheduled for the end of January. And since almost nobody seriously
pulled Aliyev in Munich, the Head of Azerbaijan apparently thought he
could continue in the same spirit. It is appropriate to mention here
that even the OSCE Minsk Group limited itself to just another
statement that was not taken seriously by either of the conflicting
parties. It can also be assumed that dissatisfied with European
observers’ conclusion on election results of the local self-governing
bodies, Baku has once again decided to wave a club. It’s hard to say
what will come of it, but in any case Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh
should not so much rely on the world community, which `will not allow’
an armed conflict between Azerbaijan and Nagorno Karabakh. The
community may simply step aside and watch the outcome of Aliyev’s
adventures. And the anti-Armenian hysteria in Azerbaijan has almost
reached its peak; now only a little excuse may be enough for the 4
March events of the past year to grow into a more serious collision.
Reading Aliyev’s speeches one comes to the conclusion that they do not
change over time, but are only slightly adjusted depending on who the
President’s statements are addressed to.

Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili keeps up with his colleague
too. The same threats, the same militant rhetoric. And if Ilham Aliyev
threatens a small country in comparison with Azerbaijan, for some
reason Saakashvili decided that he might `scare out’ Russia.
Incidentally, both of the adventures ended rather dismally for Baku
and Tbilisi.

`The citizens of Georgia must continue the process of reviving the
country with one hand, while in the other hand they should hold a gun
to defend their country,’ the Georgian President declared. The only
question is whether the citizens of Georgia would like to perform
either of these actions. The same is also true about the citizens of
Azerbaijan.

As for Turkey, Ankara has always stood out with the adequacy of its
behaviour and has never waved a club – or a scimitar – to no avail.
The same situation can be observed now – all Turkish ambassadors have
been called back to Ankara to clarify the action plan for 2010. A
seminar, called by Ahmet Davutoglu, Foreign Minister of Turkey and
Architect of Turkey’s foreign policy since 2002, is being held under
the title `Democracy, Security and Stability: Outlook for 2010 in the
world and in Turkish foreign policy’. As always, no hysteria, no
unfriendly statements addressed, in particular, to Armenia. Everything
in civilized and yet dangerous manner.

Unfortunately, Iran stepped in the new year with protest actions and
persecution of the opposition. However, in our view, a new revolution
should not be expected in 2010; too uneven are the forces: President
Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei keep the country in
obedience, despite the desperate attempts of the opposition to change
the order in the country.

And finally, our northern neighbour Russia, which has always stood out
with its extreme behaviour and lack of a rational regional policy, be
it in relation to the Northern Caucasus or the region as a whole.
Persistence of imperial thinking hinders the country’s
decision-making, which could make the country a real superpower. By
the way, this kind of thinking is unlikely to be stamped out in the
course of two generations.

Armenia enters 2010 not in the worst state; there have been even worse
situations. How the country’s internal policy will develop, directly
depends on the ratification or non-ratification of the
Armenian-Turkish Protocols. However, we must admit that the Armenian
society attaches too much importance to this fact. After all, this is
a game with obvious results that, in all probability, will show up in
the month of April. U.S. Congressmen will again start discussing the
resolution on the Armenian Genocide recognition, the chances of whose
adoption in 2010 are 50-50%. It is quite possible that on the 95th
anniversary of the Armenian Genocide there will be certain changes in
the standpoint of the international community and that of Turkey.

In short, God forbid there be anything extraordinary in 2010. Also
let’s hope that Ilham Aliyev’s statements on his readiness to
sacrifice 10 thousand people to return Nagorno-Karabakh will remain
only statements.

Karine Ter-Sahakyan