NOT TIME FOR SARGSYAN TO QUIT ARMENIA’S POLITICAL ARENA
Leyla Tagiyeva

news.az
Jan 11 2010
Azerbaijan

Fikret Sadikhov News.az interviews Fikret Sadikhov, Azerbaijani
political scientist.

The opposition in Armenia has started protests against working powers.

How can you feature the situation in this country?

Armenia has long been in a complicated deadlocked situation. Along
with the economic, it is also in a political deadlock connected with
the Zurich protocols. When signing protocols with Turkey Armenia
hoped for painless opening of borders and establishment of diplomatic
relations with this country and thus Yerevan hoped to get additional
trumps in negotiations with Azerbaijan. But it failed in that.

Therefore, quite a stiff reaction of official Baku and Azerbaijani
community influenced Ankara’s course which is proven by Turkish Prime
Minister Erdogan’s visit to Washington where he said in open that it
would be very difficult to ratify the protocols signed with Armenia
without respect to Azerbaijan’s interest. This was quite an open
and clear statement. It is clear that Armenia could not treat this
positively. Therefore, the opposition that has long been searching
grounds to overthrow Sargsyan has launched the next stage of its
protests. The Armenian authorities would like to open borders with
Turkey, get some additional preferences and preserve the occupied
Azerbaijan lands protracting the Karabakh conflict settlement. But
it failed in this matter.

How do you assess chances of Armenian opposition to overthrow the
working powers?

It is now wrong to say that the authorities will change and Sargsyan
will be overthrown there in the nearest future. These are early
forecasts that would hardly justify themselves. But the reality is
that in fact the Armenian authorities are losing their influence.

Every attempt to attain some trumps in foreign policy, every signed
document and every step is viewed by opposition as a demonstration
of anti-Armenian step and betrayal of national interests. Anyway,
if Ter-Petrosyan is a figure that is supported by the West and this
is initiated by some definite external powers, the current chances of
opposition to overthrow Sargsyan are low. It means that Sargsyan has
not yet fulfilled the tasks set before him. Only when he fulfills all
the plans on the South Caucasus, I think it would be time for him to
quit in favor of other figures.

Which tasks and plans connected with Sargsyan do you mean?

We have witnessed signing of the Zurich protocols and saw the figures
backing those who signed these protocols. These are Americans, Russians
and Europeans that is the superpowers, the leading countries which
are interested in this. Each of them has its own interest. But on
the whole, all of them were interested in signing these protocols.

Americans are interested in releasing Armenia from Russia’s
influence to certain extent; Russia’s interest is to restrict West’s
influence by means of Turkey because we have recently seen the active
Turkish-Russian rapprochement. The upcoming visit of Premier Erdogan
to Russia also proves this. It is clear that it would be very difficult
to change powers in Turkey as it is an independent state.

Armenia is another matter. It is a controlled state whose leader is
set a task to sign documents, open borders, restore relations with
Turkey after which he would be unnecessary and could be replaced.

Do you think the protests of Armenian opposition will influence the
further policy of the authorities?

Any oppositional action, certainly, influences the adoption of some
decisions by the authorities. Everything will depend on the slogans to
be used by opposition. It has many reasons for outrage. But I do not
predict the real replacement of Sargsyan with Ter-Petrosyan and other
oppositional powers in the nearest future. It means that the grounds
possibly leading the opposition to the streets are important for it.

The stimulus that may lead people to the streets to protest against
the working powers are important. The working authorities have led
Armenia to a deadlock which means that on the one hand it does not
settle the political problem with Azerbaijan and on the other hand
it does not settle any of the problems inside Armenia. Naturally,
sooner or later, if this continues, Sargsyan will have to quit.

Can the oppositional protest in Armenia have any influence on the
negotiation protest on Karabakh?

Armenians are so monolithic in this issue that nothing changes in
priorities regarding the Karabakh conflict there with changes in
political powers. There can be some changes in tactics. This is rather
the matter of external powers that will influence the decision making.

I mean the leading superpowers. No matter who is leading Armenia,
he will implement those ideas and those plans that will be dictated
by the superpowers. This is important. The fact that the second
half of 2009 to a certain extent worked in Azerbaijan’s favor and,
according to our politicians and analysts, there has been a certain
positive dynamics gives hopes to think that regardless of changes in
political powers in Armenia, Yerevan will still be obliged to take
some steps to withdraw a part of Azerbaijan’s occupied lands before
the definition of Karabakh’s status.