DID OBAMA SUCCEED IN WINNING THE HEARTS OF THE TURKISH PEOPLE?
Mehmet Yegin, Columnist, JTW

Journal of Turkish Weekly
/did-obama-succeed-in-winning-the-hearts-of-the-tu rkish-people.html
Jan 12 2010
Turkey

Why the Turkish People?

The public influence on foreign policy began to increase after
Turgut Ozal’s term and accelerated with the Justice and Development
Party (AKP) government in Turkey. Nowadays Turkish people are more
interested in foreign policy. The increase in the number of newspaper
pages and the minutes in newscasts allocated to foreign policy is
the manifest evident of such interest. Thus, Turkish people are quite
different from the Americans about their perceived importance level
of foreign policy. Opposing to the American people[i], the foreign
policy influence the incumbent evaluations, so the voting preferences.

This is the reason why the incumbent prime minister takes the public
opinion polls so seriously. Moreover, these polls are used more to be
in accordance with than to manipulate or lead the public opinion.In
addition, having nearly half of the votes of the population pushed
the government to represent ordinary citizens’ preferences for the
upcoming elections. The public predispositions and expectations on
foreign policy will also influence the government. Therefore, the
public has a major influence on foreign policy in Turkey.

Did Obama Win the Hearts of the Turkish People?

Obama gathered the sympathies of the Turkish people personally.

Turkish people generated compassion toward Obama as an unprivileged
African American. Thus, the excitement toward an African American
president all around the world was applicable to Turkey too. Moreover,
being a successor of notorious George W. Bush administration increased
the expectations of Turkish people. That is the reason for their
thrillto sacrifice 44 sheep for his election.[ii]

In addition, the Turkish journalists often overemphasized his middle
name "Hussein",which gave the impression of being related to Islam
if not implying being a secret Muslim as a conspiracy. Not only as a
Muslim name but also as a Turkish name, "Hussein" gives the impression
of familiarity to Obama. Moreover, his visit to Turkey boosted his
image not because it was his first official visit to an overseas
country but because the trip received a lot of media coverage with
his well studied movements.

For his administration, Hillary Clinton as a familiar face in cabinet
made a positive impact. Hillary Clinton’s visit to Turkey as the
Secretary of State should not be underestimated. The Clintons are quite
popular in Turkey. Hillary and Bill Clinton’s visit to Turkey in 1999
and the photo of the baby holding his nose has created an affinity
towards the couple. Thus, Hillary Clinton is another positive impact
on Obama’s image.

Why Does Anti-Americanism Linger in Turkey?

However, this personal popularity does not significantly improve
the US’ image. The Bush administration’s damage does not seem to be
rectifiable in a short time. According to Pew Research Center Polls
the US favorability rate decreased to 9% in Bush’s term (2007) from
52% in 1999-2000.A May 2007 Gallup Poll indicated that 64% of Turkish
people perceive the US as hostile to Turkey while only 5% see the US
as friendly. The percentage viewing the US as friendly increased to 12%
in 2008 and to 14% in 2009. Thus, it seems that Obama’s presidency did
not significantly change the perceptions in Turkey. The favorability
rates in Turkey are the lowest among 25 countries, most of which
changed drastically after the Obama administration. For example,
in France, one of the countries with high anti-American sentiments,
the rates jumped to 75% from 42%.

Obama’s first visit to Turkey and warm welcome to the Turkish PM in
December may attract the attention of the pundit, and moreover, may
influence high ranking bureaucrats. Yet, ordinary Turkish citizens
will not change their minds about a country with small tricks such as
stroking a cat or ceasing the speech during the call to prayer. Thus,
on a personal level Obama may enjoy popularity in Turkey. But this
popularity did not directly increase the favorability ratings of the
US. There is still a lingering distrust of the US government.

There are two approaches for this split between the president and the
country. First is the idea that Obama is incapable of changing the
country’s direction, and the second and worse approach is that this
is a deliberate policy.Turkish people attach enormous power to the
US if not see it as omnipotent. Notwithstanding the negative image,
Turkish people point to the US as the first county that would help
Turkey in an emergency. According to USAK (International Strategic
Research Organization) Foreign Policy Perception Polls in 2004(with
27.50%), in 2005 (with 24.00%) and in 2009(with 25.45%) the US remains
at the top of the list because people see the US as capable. Thus,
the stagnancy of the US on the PKK, Armenia and Cyprus issues create
negative impressions about the US. The public interprets this inertia
as hostility.

Unfortunately Obama has not made a significant move that would get the
attention of Turkish people on these delicate issues. The PKK issue is
the most important issue that influences the US’ image. The trauma of
putting sacks over the heads of Turkish soldiers in Sulaymaniyah still
lingers. And the US weapons in the hands of PKK militants exacerbated
the situation. These two solid incidents caused a threat perception
from the US. After November 5, 2007 the cooperation and intelligence
sharing changed the hostile image. Yet, other than minor improvements
such as a trilateral committee to fight against terrorism-which
will not get public attention- the Obama administration has not
taken visible steps on the PKK issue. As SedatLaciner puts it, the
US may help Turkey to capture high-ranking PKK militants through
joint operations.[iii]Such operations would balance the impact of
Suleymaniyah and boost the US’ image.

As another point, the Turkish public did not get the expected
support about the Cyprus and Armenia issues. There is no significant
improvement about Cyprus case and the isolation of the Turkish
Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) still remains. On the other hand,
there have been significant happenings on the Armenian case, but it
is hard to see significant US support. Obama did not use the term
"genocide" to address the 1915 incidents, despite the pressure of
the Armenian lobby, but he used a similar word in Armenian[iv]. The
agreement between Turkey and Armenia is an important step. Yet,
it is questionable to be perceived positively by Turkish people in
order to credit the US for the incident.

Conclusion

This does not mean there is no way to change the situation. Actually,
Turkish people want to believe Obama and his sincerity. Yet, they
could not see a substantial step to support their expectations.

According to the 2005 USAK Turkey-USA Relations survey the thorniest
obstacle in Turkish-American relations for 75% of Turkish peoplewas
the existence of PKK in Northern Iraq. I think the PKK issue is still
at the top of the list. Yet, the Turkish public has not seen the Obama
administration take a substantial step about the PKK issue. For the
Turkish public it seems that literally nothing has changed after the
November 5 negotiations.Thus, Obama needs to reveal his sincerity
about substantial issues, especially regarding the PKK.

Mehmet Yegin is a Researcher at USAK Center for Transatlantic Studies